Nafta vs Celje: prediction and stats
1. SNLRegular Season - 23Kick-off on February 20, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Športni park Lendava, Lendava
The Footlab model makes Celje the favourite at 47%, against 25% for a draw and 28% for Nafta. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nafta vs Celje?
Celje starts as the favourite with a 186-point Elo edge (1,948 vs 1,761).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nafta have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Celje have 6, 6 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Olimpija Ljubljana(away) | 0-1 | 1. SNL |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Celje(home) | 1-3 | 1. SNL |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Aluminij(away) | 1-1 | 1. SNL |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Mura(home) | 5-2 | 1. SNL |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Bravo(away) | 3-0 | 1. SNL |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Slovan Bratislava(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Nafta(away) | 3-1 | 1. SNL |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Ararat-Armenia(home) | 2-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Olimpija Ljubljana(home) | 1-0 | 1. SNL |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Ararat-Armenia(away) | 1-2 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Nafta win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Celje win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Nafta 1-3 Celje | 1. SNL |
| May 18, 2025 | Nafta 1-6 Celje | 1. SNL |
| Mar 16, 2025 | Celje 3-2 Nafta | 1. SNL |
| Dec 1, 2024 | Nafta 0-0 Celje | 1. SNL |
| Sep 15, 2024 | Celje 3-1 Nafta | 1. SNL |
| Nov 22, 2023 | Nafta 1-1 Celje | Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Nafta score 1.5 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Celje score 1.7 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nafta | 1.5 | 0.9 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Celje | 1.7 | 1.2 | 4 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nafta sit 10th in 1. SNL (0 points from 1 matches) and Celje sit 2nd (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Celje | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 4 | Celje | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 8 |
| 6 | Nafta | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 9 | 7 |
| 10 | Nafta | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nafta vs Celje?
- The Footlab model makes Celje the favourite at 47%, against 25% for a draw and 28% for Nafta.
- Where and when is Nafta vs Celje played?
- Nafta vs Celje is played on February 20, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Športni park Lendava, in the 1. SNL.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.