Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar: prediction and stats
FKF Premier LeagueRegular Season - 7Kick-off on October 16, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Nyayo National Stadium, Nairobi
The Footlab model makes Nairobi United the favourite at 40%, against 31% for a draw and 29% for Mara Sugar. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar?
A very open match: only 67 Elo points separate Nairobi United (1,544) and Mara Sugar (1,478).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nairobi United have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Mara Sugar have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | GOR Mahia(away) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 24, 2026 | Police(home) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 16, 2026 | Posta Rangers FC(home) | 2-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 10, 2026 | Kariobangi Sharks(away) | 0-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 6, 2026 | Tusker(home) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | Murang'a SEAL(away) | 1-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 27, 2026 | GOR Mahia(home) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 16, 2026 | Mathare United(home) | 0-1 | FKF Premier League |
| May 13, 2026 | Shabana(home) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 9, 2026 | AFC Leopards(away) | 1-2 | FKF Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Nairobi United win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Mara Sugar win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2026 | Nairobi United 1-1 Mara Sugar | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 1, 2025 | Mara Sugar 0-1 Nairobi United | FKF Premier League |
| Jun 1, 2025 | Nairobi United 1-1 Mara Sugar | Shield Cup |
| Jun 2, 2024 | Mara Sugar 1-0 Nairobi United | Super League |
| Dec 16, 2023 | Nairobi United 0-2 Mara Sugar | Super League |
Last archived meeting: Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar on Apr 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Nairobi United score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Mara Sugar score 0.9 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 36% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nairobi United | 1.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Mara Sugar | 0.9 | 0.7 | 7 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nairobi United sit 4th in FKF Premier League (53 points from 34 matches) and Mara Sugar sit 11th (44 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Nairobi United | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 44 | 34 | 53 |
| 11 | Mara Sugar | 34 | 10 | 14 | 10 | 30 | 30 | 44 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar?
- The Footlab model makes Nairobi United the favourite at 40%, against 31% for a draw and 29% for Mara Sugar.
- Where and when is Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar played?
- Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar is played on October 16, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Nyayo National Stadium, in the FKF Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 36% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.