Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar: prediction and stats
FKF Premier LeagueMatchday 7Kick-off on November 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Nyayo National Stadium, Nairobi
The Footlab AI model makes Nairobi United the favourite at 37%, against 30% for a draw and 33% for Mara Sugar. The most likely score is 1-1. If Nairobi United wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.1% of the 5,491 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 12, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar?
A very open match: only 43 Elo points separate Nairobi United (1,544) and Mara Sugar (1,500).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Nairobi United
4-3-3- 33B. Ochieng
- 5S. Mwinyi
- 10H. Muhadjiri
- 29D. Odhiambo
- 24L. Owino
- 26B. Mzee
- 34L. Ogutu
- 2Y. Mainge
- 12K. Otiende
- 4J. Otieno
- 32K. Oduor
Mara Sugar
Not enough data to predict the Mara Sugar lineup.
Computed on November 12, 2026 at 02:02 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nairobi United have 5 wins, 7 draws and 3 defeats; Mara Sugar have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | GOR Mahia(away) | 1-1 | FKF Premier League |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Bandari(home) | 1-1 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Murang'a SEAL(away) | 2-3 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 25, 2026 | APS Bomet(home) | 1-1 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Shabana(away) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Migori Youth(home) | 2-1 | FKF Premier League |
| Nov 2, 2026 | Tusker(away) | 1-3 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 28, 2026 | AFC Leopards(home) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Ulinzi Stars(away) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 19, 2026 | Mombasa Elite(home) | 2-1 | FKF Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Nairobi United win, 2 draws, 2 Mara Sugar wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2026 | Nairobi United 1-1 Mara Sugar | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 1, 2025 | Mara Sugar 0-1 Nairobi United | FKF Premier League |
| Jun 1, 2025 | Nairobi United 1-1 Mara Sugar | Shield Cup |
| Jun 2, 2024 | Mara Sugar 1-0 Nairobi United | Super League |
| Dec 16, 2023 | Nairobi United 0-2 Mara Sugar | Super League |
Last archived meeting: Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar on Apr 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Nairobi United score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Mara Sugar score 0.9 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nairobi United | 1.3 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
| Mara Sugar | 0.9 | 0.9 | 7 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nairobi United sit 15th in FKF Premier League (5 points from 6 matches) and Mara Sugar sit 6th (9 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Mara Sugar | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 9 |
| 15 | Nairobi United | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 5 |
A question about Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar?
- The Footlab AI model makes Nairobi United the favourite at 37%, against 30% for a draw and 33% for Mara Sugar.
- Where and when is Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar played?
- Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar is played on November 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Nyayo National Stadium, in the FKF Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.1% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.