Nairobi United vs Mombasa Elite: prediction and stats
FKF Premier LeagueRegular Season - 31Kick-off on April 24, 2027 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Nyayo National Stadium, Nairobi
The Footlab model makes Nairobi United the favourite at 46%, against 31% for a draw and 23% for Mombasa Elite. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nairobi United vs Mombasa Elite?
Nairobi United starts as the favourite with a 144-point Elo edge (1,540 vs 1,395).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nairobi United have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Mombasa Elite have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | GOR Mahia(away) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 24, 2026 | Police(home) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 16, 2026 | Posta Rangers FC(home) | 2-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 10, 2026 | Kariobangi Sharks(away) | 0-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 6, 2026 | Tusker(home) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 13, 2026 | Naivas(away) | 1-1 | Super League |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Nzoia Sugar(home) | 1-0 | Super League |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Luanda Villa(away) | 0-1 | Super League |
| May 27, 2026 | 3K(home) | 0-0 | Super League |
| May 24, 2026 | Mwatate United(away) | 1-0 | Super League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 4 Nairobi United win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Mombasa Elite win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2025 | Mombasa Elite 1-2 Nairobi United | Super League |
| Nov 3, 2024 | Nairobi United 5-0 Mombasa Elite | Super League |
| May 24, 2024 | Nairobi United 3-2 Mombasa Elite | Super League |
| Nov 26, 2023 | Mombasa Elite 1-2 Nairobi United | Super League |
Last archived meeting: Mombasa Elite vs Nairobi United on Mar 2, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Nairobi United score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Mombasa Elite score 1.0 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 33% probability of over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nairobi United | 1.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Mombasa Elite | 1.0 | 0.7 | 7 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Nairobi United | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 44 | 34 | 53 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nairobi United vs Mombasa Elite?
- The Footlab model makes Nairobi United the favourite at 46%, against 31% for a draw and 23% for Mombasa Elite.
- Where and when is Nairobi United vs Mombasa Elite played?
- Nairobi United vs Mombasa Elite is played on April 24, 2027 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Nyayo National Stadium, in the FKF Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 33% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.