Napoli vs Fiorentina: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 20Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 05:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Napoli
The Footlab AI model makes Napoli the favourite at 59%, against 23% for a draw and 18% for Fiorentina. The most likely score is 1-1. If Napoli wins, the most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,455 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Napoli vs Fiorentina?
Napoli starts as the favourite with a 113-point Elo edge (2,067 vs 1,954).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Napoli vs Fiorentina
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Napoli
3-4-2-1- 19R. Højlund
- 22G. Di Lorenzo
- 11K. De Bruyne
- 68S. Lobotka
- 21M. Politano
- 70N. Lang
- 37L. Spinazzola
- 13Amir Rrahmani
- 16Rafa Marín
- 5B. Badiashile
- 1A. Meret
Fiorentina
4-2-3-1- 23Beto
- 30Franco Mastantuono
- 27C. Ndour
- 44N. Fagioli
- 42C. Inao Oulaï
- 29W. Gnonto
- 3R. Drăgușin
- 20Álex Jiménez
- 6L. Ranieri
- 21Valde
- 43David de Gea
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 06:11 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Napoli have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Fiorentina have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Villarreal(away) | 1-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Frosinone(home) | 3-0 | Serie A |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Fiorentina(away) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Bologna(home) | 1-0 | Serie A |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Arsenal(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Genoa(away) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Napoli(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Pisa(home) | 3-0 | Coppa Italia |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Venezia(away) | 4-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Torino(home) | 1-2 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Napoli wins, 2 draws, 0 Fiorentina wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Fiorentina 1-1 Napoli | Serie A |
| Jan 31, 2026 | Napoli 2-1 Fiorentina | Serie A |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Fiorentina 1-3 Napoli | Serie A |
| Mar 9, 2025 | Napoli 2-1 Fiorentina | Serie A |
| Jan 4, 2025 | Fiorentina 0-3 Napoli | Serie A |
| May 17, 2024 | Fiorentina 2-2 Napoli | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
Napoli score 1.8 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Fiorentina score 2.0 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli | 1.8 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Fiorentina | 2.0 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Napoli sit 8th in Serie A (10 points from 6 matches) and Fiorentina sit 19th (4 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Napoli | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 10 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 4 |
A question about Napoli vs Fiorentina?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Napoli vs Fiorentina?
- The Footlab AI model makes Napoli the favourite at 59%, against 23% for a draw and 18% for Fiorentina.
- Where and when is Napoli vs Fiorentina played?
- Napoli vs Fiorentina is played on January 17, 2027 at 05:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.