Fiorentina vs Napoli: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 5Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Artemio Franchi, Firenze
The Footlab model makes Napoli the favourite at 36%, against 28% for a draw and 36% for Fiorentina. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Fiorentina vs Napoli?
A very open match: only 87 Elo points separate Fiorentina (2,120) and Napoli (2,206).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fiorentina have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Napoli have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Benevento(home) | 4-1 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Real Madrid(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Watford(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | QPR(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2026 | Aris Thessalonikis(home) | 6-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Celta Vigo(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Osasuna(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Carrarese(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Arezzo(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Fiorentina win(s), 1 draw(s), 5 Napoli win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | Napoli 2-1 Fiorentina | Serie A |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Fiorentina 1-3 Napoli | Serie A |
| Mar 9, 2025 | Napoli 2-1 Fiorentina | Serie A |
| Jan 4, 2025 | Fiorentina 0-3 Napoli | Serie A |
| May 17, 2024 | Fiorentina 2-2 Napoli | Serie A |
| Jan 18, 2024 | Napoli 3-0 Fiorentina | Super Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Fiorentina score 1.7 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Napoli score 1.8 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina | 1.7 | 1.0 | 6 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Napoli | 1.8 | 0.9 | 7 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Fiorentina sit 15th in Serie A (42 points from 38 matches) and Napoli sit 2nd (76 points from 38 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Napoli | 38 | 23 | 7 | 8 | 58 | 36 | 76 |
| 15 | Fiorentina | 38 | 9 | 15 | 14 | 41 | 50 | 42 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Fiorentina vs Napoli?
- The Footlab model makes Napoli the favourite at 36%, against 28% for a draw and 36% for Fiorentina.
- Where and when is Fiorentina vs Napoli played?
- Fiorentina vs Napoli is played on September 20, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Artemio Franchi, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.