Nardò vs Virtus Francavilla: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone HGroup H - 31Kick-off on April 11, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Heffort Sport Village, Parabita
The Footlab model makes Nardò the favourite at 51%, against 27% for a draw and 22% for Virtus Francavilla. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nardò vs Virtus Francavilla?
A very open match: only 62 Elo points separate Nardò (1,769) and Virtus Francavilla (1,707).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nardò have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Virtus Francavilla have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Martina Franca(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone H |
| May 3, 2026 | Barletta(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Ferrandina(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Manfredonia(home) | 2-0 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Sarnese(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Sarnese(home) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Pompei(away) | 1-4 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Francavilla(home) | 0-3 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Fidelis Andria(home) | 0-2 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Afragolese(away) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone H |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Nardò win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Virtus Francavilla win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2026 | Virtus Francavilla 1-0 Nardò | Serie D - Girone H |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Nardò 3-0 Virtus Francavilla | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Nardò 1-0 Virtus Francavilla | Serie D - Girone H |
| Dec 15, 2024 | Virtus Francavilla 2-1 Nardò | Serie D - Girone H |
Last archived meeting: Virtus Francavilla vs Nardò on Mar 29, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Nardò score 1.1 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Virtus Francavilla score 1.4 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nardò | 1.1 | 0.7 | 9 | 4/15 | 5/15 |
| Virtus Francavilla | 1.4 | 1.3 | 5 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nardò sit 5th in Serie D - Girone H (55 points from 34 matches) and Virtus Francavilla sit 9th (48 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Nardò | 34 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 40 | 27 | 55 |
| 9 | Virtus Francavilla | 34 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 45 | 40 | 48 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nardò vs Virtus Francavilla?
- The Footlab model makes Nardò the favourite at 51%, against 27% for a draw and 22% for Virtus Francavilla.
- Where and when is Nardò vs Virtus Francavilla played?
- Nardò vs Virtus Francavilla is played on April 11, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Heffort Sport Village, in the Serie D - Girone H.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.