Nardò vs Virtus Francavilla: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone HGroup H - 31Kick-off on April 11, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Heffort Sport Village, Parabita
The Footlab AI model makes Nardò the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Virtus Francavilla. The most likely score is 1-1. If Nardò wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,793 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nardò vs Virtus Francavilla?
A very open match: only 55 Elo points separate Nardò (1,719) and Virtus Francavilla (1,774).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Nardò vs Virtus Francavilla
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Nardò
Not enough data to predict the Nardò lineup.
Virtus Francavilla
Not enough data to predict the Virtus Francavilla lineup.
Computed on October 19, 2026 at 07:39 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nardò have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Virtus Francavilla have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Brindisi(away) | 0-2 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Gravina(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Oct 4, 2026 | USD Palmese(away) | 2-4 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Martina Franca(home) | 0-3 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Ischia(away) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Fidelis Andria(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Real Forio 2014(home) | 2-0 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Gravina(home) | 3-0 | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Gravina(away) | 2-4 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Gladiator(home) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone H |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Nardò wins, 0 draws, 2 Virtus Francavilla wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2026 | Virtus Francavilla 1-0 Nardò | Serie D - Girone H |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Nardò 3-0 Virtus Francavilla | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Nardò 1-0 Virtus Francavilla | Serie D - Girone H |
| Dec 15, 2024 | Virtus Francavilla 2-1 Nardò | Serie D - Girone H |
Last archived meeting: Virtus Francavilla vs Nardò on Mar 29, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Nardò score 0.8 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Virtus Francavilla score 1.6 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nardò | 0.8 | 1.2 | 5 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
| Virtus Francavilla | 1.6 | 1.5 | 4 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nardò sit 18th in Serie D - Girone H (4 points from 8 matches) and Virtus Francavilla sit 1st (18 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Virtus Francavilla | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 10 | 18 |
| 18 | Nardò | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 4 |
A question about Nardò vs Virtus Francavilla?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nardò vs Virtus Francavilla?
- The Footlab AI model makes Nardò the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Virtus Francavilla.
- Where and when is Nardò vs Virtus Francavilla played?
- Nardò vs Virtus Francavilla is played on April 11, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Heffort Sport Village, in the Serie D - Girone H.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.