Naval Reinosa vs Castro: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Group 3 - 8Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 03:30 PM (UTC)
The Footlab AI model makes Castro the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Naval Reinosa. The most likely score is 1-1. If Castro wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 3,044 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 22, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Naval Reinosa vs Castro?
A very open match: only 12 Elo points separate Naval Reinosa (1,692) and Castro (1,704).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Naval Reinosa vs Castro
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Naval Reinosa
Not enough data to predict the Naval Reinosa lineup.
Castro
Not enough data to predict the Castro lineup.
Computed on October 22, 2026 at 09:54 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 7 matches in all competitions, Naval Reinosa have 0 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Castro have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Revilla(away) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Solares(home) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Selaya(away) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Laredo(home) | 0-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Bezana(away) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Escobedo(home) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Atlético Albericia(away) | 2-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Tropezón(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Atlético Mineros(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Revilla(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
How many goals should we expect?
Naval Reinosa score 1.1 and concede 2.6 goals per match over their last 7; Castro score 1.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naval Reinosa | 1.1 | 2.6 | 1 | 4/7 | 6/7 |
| Castro | 1.1 | 1.5 | 4 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 7 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Naval Reinosa sit 18th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 (2 points from 6 matches) and Castro sit 10th (8 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Castro | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 8 |
| 18 | Naval Reinosa | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 2 |
A question about Naval Reinosa vs Castro?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Naval Reinosa vs Castro?
- The Footlab AI model makes Castro the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Naval Reinosa.
- Where and when is Naval Reinosa vs Castro played?
- Naval Reinosa vs Castro is played on October 25, 2026 at 03:30 PM (UTC), in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.