Navbahor vs Dinamo Samarqand: prediction and stats
Super LeagueRegular Season - 22Kick-off on September 18, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Markaziy Stadion, Namangan
The Footlab model makes Navbahor the favourite at 46%, against 25% for a draw and 28% for Dinamo Samarqand. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Navbahor vs Dinamo Samarqand?
A very open match: only 11 Elo points separate Navbahor (1,740) and Dinamo Samarqand (1,729).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Navbahor have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Dinamo Samarqand have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Nasaf(home) | 1-0 | Super League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Bunyodkor(home) | 4-3 | Super League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Surkhon(away) | 1-0 | Super League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Xorazm(home) | 5-1 | Super League |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Neftchi(away) | 1-1 | Super League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Pakhtakor(home) | 1-1 | Super League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Olmaliq(away) | 1-0 | Super League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Xorazm(home) | 2-2 | Super League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Lokomotiv(away) | 1-2 | Super League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Neftchi(home) | 0-0 | Super League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Navbahor win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 Dinamo Samarqand win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | Dinamo Samarqand 1-2 Navbahor | Super League |
| Aug 2, 2025 | Dinamo Samarqand 2-2 Navbahor | Super League |
| Mar 9, 2025 | Navbahor 0-0 Dinamo Samarqand | Super League |
| Oct 12, 2024 | Dinamo Samarqand 0-1 Navbahor | Super League |
| Apr 28, 2024 | Dinamo Samarqand 1-1 Navbahor | Cup |
| Mar 1, 2024 | Navbahor 3-1 Dinamo Samarqand | Super League |
Last archived meeting: Dinamo Samarqand vs Navbahor on Feb 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Navbahor score 1.7 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Dinamo Samarqand score 1.6 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Navbahor | 1.7 | 1.0 | 6 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
| Dinamo Samarqand | 1.6 | 1.5 | 2 | 13/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Navbahor sit 3rd in Super League (20 points from 11 matches) and Dinamo Samarqand sit 13th (11 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Navbahor | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 8 | 20 |
| 4 | Navbahor | 18 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 29 | 17 | 34 |
| 8 | Dinamo Samarqand | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 29 | 30 | 26 |
| 13 | Dinamo Samarqand | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 21 | 11 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Navbahor vs Dinamo Samarqand?
- The Footlab model makes Navbahor the favourite at 46%, against 25% for a draw and 28% for Dinamo Samarqand.
- Where and when is Navbahor vs Dinamo Samarqand played?
- Navbahor vs Dinamo Samarqand is played on September 18, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Markaziy Stadion, in the Super League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.