Nebitci vs Merw: prediction and stats
Ýokary LigaRegular Season - 23Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Balkanabat Stadiony, Balkanabat
The Footlab AI model makes Nebitci the favourite at 52%, against 25% for a draw and 23% for Merw. The most likely score is 1-1. If Nebitci wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nebitci vs Merw?
On Elo ratings, Nebitci has 1,343 points and Merw 1,283.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Nebitci vs Merw
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Nebitci
4-3-3- 10H. Amanmämmedow
- 11M. Garadanow
- 6A. Metdaýew
- 7A. Ylýasow
- 5N. Mammedaliýew
- 14A. Garajaýew
- 4M. Saparow
- 17D. Orazguliýew
- 21B. Guldurdyýew
- 20Y. Magtymow
- 1A. Kerimow
Merw
4-4-2- 8Y. Dovletgeldiyev
- 90M. Ýakşiýew
- 10K. Annamuhammedov
- 14D. Durdyyev
- 13I. Sekov
- 11M. Nazzyyev
- 4A. Mahmudov
- 2S. Bashimov
- 6A. Orazmuhammedov
- 9M. Atagarryyev
- 30M. Saparov
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 02:42 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nebitci have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Merw have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Şagadam(home) | 3-0 | Ýokary Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Altyn Asyr(home) | 2-4 | Ýokary Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Ahal(away) | 0-3 | Ýokary Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Arkadag(home) | 2-4 | Ýokary Liga |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Aşgabat(home) | 1-1 | Ýokary Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Şagadam(away) | 2-0 | Ýokary Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Köpetdag Aşgabat(home) | 0-0 | Ýokary Liga |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Aşgabat(home) | 3-2 | Ýokary Liga |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ahal(away) | 0-4 | Ýokary Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Nebitci(home) | 0-1 | Ýokary Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Nebitci wins, 1 draw, 1 Merw win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Merw 0-1 Nebitci | Ýokary Liga |
| May 20, 2026 | Nebitci 2-1 Merw | Ýokary Liga |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Merw 4-1 Nebitci | Ýokary Liga |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Merw 1-2 Nebitci | Ýokary Liga |
| Aug 19, 2025 | Nebitci 1-0 Merw | Ýokary Liga |
| May 17, 2025 | Merw 0-0 Nebitci | Ýokary Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Nebitci score 1.0 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Merw score 0.9 and concede 2.5. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nebitci | 1.0 | 1.9 | 5 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Merw | 0.9 | 2.5 | 3 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nebitci sit 5th in Ýokary Liga (19 points from 21 matches) and Merw sit 6th (18 points from 21 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Nebitci | 21 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 17 | 38 | 19 |
| 6 | Merw | 21 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 23 | 59 | 18 |
A question about Nebitci vs Merw?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nebitci vs Merw?
- The Footlab AI model makes Nebitci the favourite at 52%, against 25% for a draw and 23% for Merw.
- Where and when is Nebitci vs Merw played?
- Nebitci vs Merw is played on October 17, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Balkanabat Stadiony, in the Ýokary Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.