Negelle Arsi vs Mekelakeya: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 31Kick-off on May 8, 2027 at 12:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab AI model makes Negelle Arsi the favourite at 35%, against 34% for a draw and 31% for Mekelakeya. The most likely score is 0-0. If Negelle Arsi wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.0% of the 4,850 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 7, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Negelle Arsi vs Mekelakeya?
A very open match: only 6 Elo points separate Negelle Arsi (1,584) and Mekelakeya (1,589).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Negelle Arsi vs Mekelakeya
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Negelle Arsi
Not enough data to predict the Negelle Arsi lineup.
Mekelakeya
4-3-3- 27A. Yigzaw
- 14Mohammed Abera
- 35C. Kudjoe
- 7Bereket Desta Dana
- 10Abdulkarim Worku
- 19C. Gugsa
- 6G. Hagos
- 34N. Hailu
- 2F. Jemal
- 22C. Menberu
- 1Nafian Legason Alionzi
Computed on November 7, 2026 at 10:34 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Negelle Arsi have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Mekelakeya have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2026 | Sheger Ketema(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 26, 2026 | Adama Kenema(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Ethiopia Bunna(away) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Mebrat Hayl(away) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Kedus Giorgis(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Sidama Bunna(away) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Ethiopian Medhin(away) | 3-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 22, 2026 | Gamo Chencha(away) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Ethiopia Nigd Bank(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Awassa Kenema(away) | 1-0 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Negelle Arsi win, 0 draws, 1 Mekelakeya win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 14, 2026 | Mekelakeya 4-0 Negelle Arsi | Premier League |
| Jan 4, 2026 | Negelle Arsi 2-0 Mekelakeya | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Mekelakeya vs Negelle Arsi on May 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Negelle Arsi score 1.1 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Mekelakeya score 0.9 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 27% probability of over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Negelle Arsi | 1.1 | 0.8 | 8 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| Mekelakeya | 0.9 | 0.7 | 8 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Negelle Arsi sit 1st in Premier League (11 points from 5 matches) and Mekelakeya sit 2nd (10 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Negelle Arsi | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 11 |
| 2 | Mekelakeya | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 10 |
A question about Negelle Arsi vs Mekelakeya?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Negelle Arsi vs Mekelakeya?
- The Footlab AI model makes Negelle Arsi the favourite at 35%, against 34% for a draw and 31% for Mekelakeya.
- Where and when is Negelle Arsi vs Mekelakeya played?
- Negelle Arsi vs Mekelakeya is played on May 8, 2027 at 12:00 PM (UTC), in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 27% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.0% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- May 8, 2027Adama KenemavsEthiopia Nigd Bank
- May 8, 2027Awassa KenemavsHadiya Hosaena
- May 8, 2027Ethiopia BunnavsFasil Ketema
- May 8, 2027Kedus GiorgisvsWelwalo Adigrat Uni
- May 8, 2027Sidama BunnavsHalaba Ketema
- May 8, 2027Mebrat HaylvsBahardar
- May 8, 2027Sheger KetemavsEthiopian Medhin
- May 8, 2027Gamo ChenchavsWelayta Dicha