Newry City AFC vs Ards: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 26Kick-off on January 30, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)The Showgrounds, Newry
The Footlab model makes Ards the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for Newry City AFC. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Newry City AFC vs Ards?
A very open match: only 97 Elo points separate Newry City AFC (1,244) and Ards (1,341).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Newry City AFC have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Ards have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Warrenpoint Town(home) | 0-3 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rathfriland(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Glenavon FC(home) | 1-4 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ballinamallard United(away) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Bangor(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Loughgall(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Warrenpoint Town(away) | 3-1 | Championship |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Dundela(home) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Glenavon FC(away) | 3-1 | Championship |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Carrick Rangers(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Newry City AFC win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Ards win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2025 | Newry City AFC 2-0 Ards | Championship |
| Dec 14, 2024 | Ards 0-1 Newry City AFC | Championship |
| Oct 4, 2024 | Newry City AFC 1-4 Ards | Championship |
| Mar 12, 2022 | Newry City AFC 4-0 Ards | Championship |
| Oct 29, 2021 | Ards 1-1 Newry City AFC | Championship |
| Aug 27, 2021 | Newry City AFC 2-1 Ards | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Newry City AFC vs Ards on Mar 4, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Newry City AFC score 1.1 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Ards score 1.5 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newry City AFC | 1.1 | 1.2 | 7 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
| Ards | 1.5 | 1.2 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Newry City AFC sit 10th in Championship (6 points from 4 matches) and Ards sit 5th (7 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Ards | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 7 |
| 8 | Ards | 33 | 12 | 7 | 14 | 50 | 46 | 43 |
| 8 | Ards | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 56 | 51 | 52 |
| 10 | Newry City AFC | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Newry City AFC vs Ards?
- The Footlab model makes Ards the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for Newry City AFC.
- Where and when is Newry City AFC vs Ards played?
- Newry City AFC vs Ards is played on January 30, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at The Showgrounds, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.