Ards vs Glenavon FC: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 27Kick-off on February 6, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Bangor Fuels Arena, Bangor
The Footlab model makes Glenavon FC the favourite at 39%, against 25% for a draw and 35% for Ards. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ards vs Glenavon FC?
A very open match: only 75 Elo points separate Ards (1,341) and Glenavon FC (1,417).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ards have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Glenavon FC have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Loughgall(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Warrenpoint Town(away) | 3-1 | Championship |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Dundela(home) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Glenavon FC(away) | 3-1 | Championship |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Carrick Rangers(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Armagh City(away) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Strabane Athletic(home) | 4-1 | Championship |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Newry City AFC(away) | 4-1 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ards(home) | 1-3 | Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Ballymena United(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Ards win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 Glenavon FC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Glenavon FC 1-3 Ards | Championship |
| Jul 18, 2023 | Glenavon FC 6-3 Ards | Friendlies Clubs |
| Feb 9, 2019 | Glenavon FC 2-0 Ards | Premiership |
| Nov 24, 2018 | Glenavon FC 3-1 Ards | Premiership |
| Sep 25, 2018 | Ards 0-2 Glenavon FC | Premiership |
| Feb 13, 2018 | Ards 1-6 Glenavon FC | Premiership |
How many goals should we expect?
Ards score 1.5 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Glenavon FC score 1.5 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ards | 1.5 | 1.2 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Glenavon FC | 1.5 | 1.6 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ards sit 5th in Championship (7 points from 4 matches) and Glenavon FC sit 4th (7 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Glenavon FC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 7 |
| 5 | Ards | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 7 |
| 8 | Ards | 33 | 12 | 7 | 14 | 50 | 46 | 43 |
| 8 | Ards | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 56 | 51 | 52 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ards vs Glenavon FC?
- The Footlab model makes Glenavon FC the favourite at 39%, against 25% for a draw and 35% for Ards.
- Where and when is Ards vs Glenavon FC played?
- Ards vs Glenavon FC is played on February 6, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Bangor Fuels Arena, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.