Ngozi City vs Royal Vision: prediction and stats
Ligue ARegular Season - 6Kick-off on September 16, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stade Urukundo, Mwumba
The Footlab model makes Royal Vision the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Ngozi City. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ngozi City vs Royal Vision?
Royal Vision starts as the favourite with a 110-point Elo edge (1,542 vs 1,431).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ngozi City have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Royal Vision have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Vital'O(away) | 1-2 | Ligue A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Young Star(home) | 2-0 | Ligue A |
| May 9, 2026 | Olympic Star(away) | 0-4 | Ligue A |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Musongati(home) | 2-4 | Ligue A |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Rukinzo(away) | 2-4 | Ligue A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Olympic Star(away) | 0-0 | Ligue A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Musongati(home) | 2-1 | Ligue A |
| May 9, 2026 | Vital'O(home) | 0-1 | Ligue A |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Aigle Noir(home) | 2-1 | Ligue A |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Le Messager Ngozi(away) | 1-0 | Ligue A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Ngozi City win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Royal Vision win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2026 | Royal Vision 2-1 Ngozi City | Ligue A |
| Nov 30, 2025 | Ngozi City 1-0 Royal Vision | Ligue A |
| Apr 19, 2025 | Ngozi City 1-1 Royal Vision | Ligue A |
| Sep 13, 2024 | Royal Vision 1-1 Ngozi City | Ligue A |
Last archived meeting: Royal Vision vs Ngozi City on Jan 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ngozi City score 1.6 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Royal Vision score 1.5 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ngozi City | 1.6 | 1.6 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Royal Vision | 1.5 | 0.8 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ngozi City sit 6th in Ligue A (3 points from 2 matches) and Royal Vision sit 5th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Royal Vision | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Ngozi City | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ngozi City vs Royal Vision?
- The Footlab model makes Royal Vision the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Ngozi City.
- Where and when is Ngozi City vs Royal Vision played?
- Ngozi City vs Royal Vision is played on September 16, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Urukundo, in the Ligue A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.