Young Star vs Bumamuru: prediction and stats
Ligue ARegular Season - 6Kick-off on September 16, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Young Star the favourite at 35%, against 31% for a draw and 35% for Bumamuru. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Young Star vs Bumamuru?
Bumamuru starts as the favourite with a 132-point Elo edge (1,545 vs 1,413).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 2 matches in all competitions, Young Star have 0 wins, 1 draws and 1 defeats; Bumamuru have 2, 5 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Kayanza United(home) | 0-0 | Ligue A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Ngozi City(away) | 0-2 | Ligue A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Panthere Noir(away) | 1-1 | Ligue A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Le Messager Ngozi(home) | 0-1 | Ligue A |
| May 9, 2026 | Musongati(away) | 0-3 | Ligue A |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Rukinzo(home) | 0-4 | Ligue A |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Green Farmers FC(away) | 2-1 | Ligue A |
How many goals should we expect?
Young Star score 0.0 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 2; Bumamuru score 0.9 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Young Star | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1 | 0/2 | 0/2 |
| Bumamuru | 0.9 | 1.6 | 2 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 2 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Young Star sit 15th in Ligue A (1 points from 2 matches) and Bumamuru sit 14th (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Bumamuru | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 15 | Young Star | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Young Star vs Bumamuru?
- The Footlab model makes Young Star the favourite at 35%, against 31% for a draw and 35% for Bumamuru.
- Where and when is Young Star vs Bumamuru played?
- Young Star vs Bumamuru is played on September 16, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC), in the Ligue A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.