Nicaragua vs Montserrat: prediction and stats
CONCACAF Nations LeaguePlay-In FinalKick-off on November 18, 2026 at 03:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Nacional de Fútbol (UNAN), Managua
The Footlab AI model makes Nicaragua the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for Montserrat. The most likely score is 1-1. If Nicaragua wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.1% of the 5,453 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 12, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nicaragua vs Montserrat?
A very open match: only 56 Elo points separate Nicaragua (1,477) and Montserrat (1,420).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Nicaragua vs Montserrat
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Nicaragua
5-4-1- 13W. Talavera
- 16R. Cole
- 14K. Cole
- 3Ó. Acevedo
- 20J. Moncada
- 5J. Cano
- 4M. Fletes
- 6E. Gomez
- 19J. Pérez
- 21C. Reyes
- 1B. Mayorga
Montserrat
4-4-2- 17Ashley Frank Boatswain
- 9L. Taylor
- 7B. Barzey
- 8B. Comley
- 18A. Dyer
- 12D. Richmond
- 4N. Gordon
- 14J. Dorsett
- 3Lenni Rae Cirino
- 21Lucas Kirnon
- 1Trent Carter-Rodgers
Computed on November 12, 2026 at 05:03 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nicaragua have 2 wins, 2 draws and 11 defeats; Montserrat have 7, 0 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | Dominican Republic(home) | 1-2 | CONCACAF Nations League |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Costa Rica(home) | 0-3 | CONCACAF Nations League |
| Sep 28, 2026 | Curaçao(away) | 1-6 | CONCACAF Nations League |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Dominican Republic(away) | 2-3 | CONCACAF Nations League |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Paraguay(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | Turks and Caicos Islands(home) | 4-1 | CONCACAF Nations League |
| Oct 1, 2026 | British Virgin Islands(away) | 2-0 | CONCACAF Nations League |
| Sep 26, 2026 | British Virgin Islands(home) | 3-0 | CONCACAF Nations League |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Turks and Caicos Islands(away) | 2-0 | CONCACAF Nations League |
| Jun 11, 2025 | Guyana(away) | 0-3 | World Cup - Qualification CONCACAF |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 3 Nicaragua wins, 0 draws, 0 Montserrat wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 6, 2024 | Nicaragua 4-1 Montserrat | World Cup - Qualification CONCACAF |
| Oct 17, 2023 | Nicaragua 3-0 Montserrat | CONCACAF Nations League |
| Oct 13, 2023 | Montserrat 0-3 Nicaragua | CONCACAF Nations League |
Last archived meeting: Nicaragua vs Montserrat on Jun 6, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Nicaragua score 0.7 and concede 2.4 goals per match over their last 15; Montserrat score 1.4 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicaragua | 0.7 | 2.4 | 3 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
| Montserrat | 1.4 | 1.5 | 5 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about Nicaragua vs Montserrat?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nicaragua vs Montserrat?
- The Footlab AI model makes Nicaragua the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for Montserrat.
- Where and when is Nicaragua vs Montserrat played?
- Nicaragua vs Montserrat is played on November 18, 2026 at 03:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Nacional de Fútbol (UNAN), in the CONCACAF Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.1% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.