NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Rijeka: prediction and stats
HNLRegular Season - 7Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Maksimir, Zagreb
The Footlab model makes HNK Rijeka the favourite at 42%, against 29% for a draw and 29% for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Rijeka?
HNK Rijeka starts as the favourite with a 120-point Elo edge (1,985 vs 1,865).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, NK Lokomotiva Zagreb have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; HNK Rijeka have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Rudes(away) | 1-4 | HNL |
| Aug 15, 2026 | NK Osijek(away) | 0-1 | HNL |
| Aug 8, 2026 | HNK Gorica(home) | 3-1 | HNL |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Istra 1961(away) | 3-2 | HNL |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Sturm Graz II(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Istra 1961(home) | 3-2 | HNL |
| Aug 20, 2026 | FC Midtjylland(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | NK Varazdin(away) | 0-2 | HNL |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Ilves(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Ilves(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 HNK Rijeka win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0-3 HNK Rijeka | HNL |
| Mar 1, 2026 | HNK Rijeka 2-0 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | HNL |
| Nov 30, 2025 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-1 HNK Rijeka | HNL |
| Sep 13, 2025 | HNK Rijeka 1-1 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | HNL |
| Apr 6, 2025 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0-1 HNK Rijeka | HNL |
| Jan 26, 2025 | HNK Rijeka 4-1 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | HNL |
Last archived meeting: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Rijeka on May 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb score 1.3 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; HNK Rijeka score 1.1 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 1.3 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| HNK Rijeka | 1.1 | 0.7 | 8 | 3/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb sit 4th in HNL (6 points from 4 matches) and HNK Rijeka sit 7th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 6 |
| 7 | HNK Rijeka | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Rijeka?
- The Footlab model makes HNK Rijeka the favourite at 42%, against 29% for a draw and 29% for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb.
- Where and when is NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Rijeka played?
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Rijeka is played on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Maksimir, in the HNL.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.