HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Slaven Belupo: prediction and stats
HNLRegular Season - 7Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Poljud, Split
The Footlab model makes HNK Hajduk Split the favourite at 70%, against 19% for a draw and 11% for NK Slaven Belupo. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Slaven Belupo?
HNK Hajduk Split starts as the favourite with a 206-point Elo edge (2,008 vs 1,802).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, HNK Hajduk Split have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; NK Slaven Belupo have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Raków Częstochowa(home) | 2-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | HNK Gorica(away) | 2-1 | HNL |
| Aug 13, 2026 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius(home) | 4-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Istra 1961(home) | 2-2 | HNL |
| Aug 6, 2026 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius(away) | 5-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | HNK Gorica(home) | 2-0 | HNL |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Istra 1961(away) | 0-3 | HNL |
| Aug 9, 2026 | NK Varazdin(home) | 1-4 | HNL |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Dinamo Zagreb(away) | 0-2 | HNL |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Sesvete(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 HNK Hajduk Split win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 NK Slaven Belupo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, 2026 | NK Slaven Belupo 2-2 HNK Hajduk Split | HNL |
| Feb 7, 2026 | HNK Hajduk Split 2-0 NK Slaven Belupo | HNL |
| Nov 2, 2025 | NK Slaven Belupo 0-0 HNK Hajduk Split | HNL |
| Aug 17, 2025 | HNK Hajduk Split 3-0 NK Slaven Belupo | HNL |
| Apr 5, 2025 | NK Slaven Belupo 0-1 HNK Hajduk Split | HNL |
| Jan 26, 2025 | HNK Hajduk Split 0-0 NK Slaven Belupo | HNL |
Last archived meeting: NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Hajduk Split on Apr 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
HNK Hajduk Split score 2.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; NK Slaven Belupo score 1.4 and concede 2.2. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HNK Hajduk Split | 2.3 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| NK Slaven Belupo | 1.4 | 2.2 | 3 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
HNK Hajduk Split sit 6th in HNL (4 points from 3 matches) and NK Slaven Belupo sit 8th (3 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | HNK Hajduk Split | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| 8 | NK Slaven Belupo | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Slaven Belupo?
- The Footlab model makes HNK Hajduk Split the favourite at 70%, against 19% for a draw and 11% for NK Slaven Belupo.
- Where and when is HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Slaven Belupo played?
- HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Slaven Belupo is played on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Poljud, in the HNL.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.