Northampton vs Gillingham: prediction and stats
EFL TrophyGroup South - 7Kick-off on November 10, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Sixfields Stadium, Northampton, East Midlands
The Footlab AI model makes Northampton the favourite at 54%, against 22% for a draw and 24% for Gillingham. The most likely score is 1-1. If Northampton wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 4,449 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 4, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Northampton vs Gillingham?
On Elo ratings, Northampton has 1,654 points and Gillingham 1,694.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Northampton vs Gillingham
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Northampton
4-4-2- 19O. Dale
- 9Matthew Warhurst
- 16J. Wormleighton
- 24C. Lemonheigh-Evans
- 8L. Evans
- 4J. O'Brien-Whitmarsh
- 6E. Moore
- 44J. Donacien
- 5J. Guthrie
- 22Joshua Alan Powell
- 1Z. Jeacock
Gillingham
3-4-3- 10Ronan Hale
- 24H. Waldock
- 11L. Sillah
- 16J. Brophy
- 22N. Freeman
- 3Conor McManus
- 6E. Coleman
- 5A. Smith
- 19O. Beckles
- 26L. Dobbs
- 40R. Luthra
Computed on November 4, 2026 at 09:26 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Northampton have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Gillingham have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2026 | Oldham(home) | 0-1 | League Two |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Accrington ST(away) | 1-1 | League Two |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Colchester(home) | 2-0 | League Two |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Tranmere(home) | 0-1 | League Two |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Grimsby(away) | 2-0 | League Two |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Shrewsbury(away) | 2-1 | League Two |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Grimsby(home) | 1-4 | League Two |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Port Vale(home) | 1-1 | League Two |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Accrington ST(away) | 1-3 | League Two |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Brighton U21(home) | 4-3 | EFL Trophy |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Northampton wins, 2 draws, 1 Gillingham win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | Gillingham 1-1 Northampton | League Two |
| Apr 10, 2023 | Northampton 2-1 Gillingham | League Two |
| Nov 12, 2022 | Gillingham 0-2 Northampton | League Two |
| Apr 24, 2021 | Gillingham 2-2 Northampton | League One |
| Dec 29, 2020 | Northampton 3-1 Gillingham | League One |
| Feb 13, 2018 | Northampton 1-2 Gillingham | League One |
Last archived meeting: Gillingham vs Northampton on Aug 29, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Northampton score 0.7 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Gillingham score 1.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northampton | 0.7 | 1.0 | 4 | 5/15 | 2/15 |
| Gillingham | 1.7 | 1.5 | 4 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Northampton sit 1st in EFL Trophy (9 points from 3 matches) and Gillingham sit 3rd (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NorthamptonGroup 11 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | GillinghamGroup 15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 3 |
A question about Northampton vs Gillingham?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Northampton vs Gillingham?
- The Footlab AI model makes Northampton the favourite at 54%, against 22% for a draw and 24% for Gillingham.
- Where and when is Northampton vs Gillingham played?
- Northampton vs Gillingham is played on November 10, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Sixfields Stadium, in the EFL Trophy.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.