Gillingham vs Brighton U21: prediction and stats
EFL TrophyGroup South - 7Kick-off on September 2, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Priestfield Stadium, Gillingham, Kent
The Footlab model makes Brighton U21 the favourite at 51%, against 23% for a draw and 26% for Gillingham. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gillingham vs Brighton U21?
Brighton U21 starts as the favourite with a 244-point Elo edge (1,892 vs 1,648).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gillingham have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Brighton U21 have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Fleetwood Town(away) | 0-0 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Walsall(home) | 0-3 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Luton(home) | 0-3 | League Cup |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Ebbsfleet United(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Millwall(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Aston Villa U21(away) | 1-2 | Premier League 2 Division One |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Northampton(away) | 3-0 | EFL Trophy |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Millwall U21(home) | 2-0 | Premier League Cup |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Worthing(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 16, 2026 | Manchester United U21(home) | 1-0 | Premier League 2 Division One |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 1 Gillingham win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Brighton U21 win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2022 | Gillingham 3-2 Brighton U21 | EFL Trophy |
Last archived meeting: Gillingham vs Brighton U21 on Oct 4, 2022
How many goals should we expect?
Gillingham score 1.0 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Brighton U21 score 2.2 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gillingham | 1.0 | 1.6 | 6 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
| Brighton U21 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 7 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gillingham sit 3rd in EFL Trophy (3 points from 3 matches) and Brighton U21 sit 4th (1 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Gillingham | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 3 |
| 4 | Brighton U21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gillingham vs Brighton U21?
- The Footlab model makes Brighton U21 the favourite at 51%, against 23% for a draw and 26% for Gillingham.
- Where and when is Gillingham vs Brighton U21 played?
- Gillingham vs Brighton U21 is played on September 2, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Priestfield Stadium, in the EFL Trophy.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.