Noteć Czarnków vs Polonia Środa: prediction and stats
III Liga - Group 2Group II - 9Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Noteć Czarnków, Czarnków
The Footlab model makes Polonia Środa the favourite at 55%, against 23% for a draw and 23% for Noteć Czarnków. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Noteć Czarnków vs Polonia Środa?
A very open match: only 81 Elo points separate Noteć Czarnków (1,791) and Polonia Środa (1,872).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Noteć Czarnków have 8 wins, 1 draws and 6 defeats; Polonia Środa have 9, 1 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Elana Toruń(home) | 3-1 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Kalisz(away) | 1-0 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Unia Swarzędz(away) | 3-0 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Grom Nowy Staw(home) | 0-2 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Gedania Gdansk(away) | 3-5 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Lipno Stęszew(away) | 3-2 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Stargard Szczeciński(home) | 4-1 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Chemik Bydgoszcz(away) | 4-1 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Victoria Września(home) | 1-0 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Bałtyk Koszalin(away) | 3-0 | III Liga - Group 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Noteć Czarnków win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Polonia Środa win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 13, 2026 | Noteć Czarnków 2-0 Polonia Środa | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Oct 24, 2025 | Polonia Środa 2-6 Noteć Czarnków | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Mar 1, 2025 | Noteć Czarnków 2-4 Polonia Środa | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 10, 2024 | Polonia Środa 2-2 Noteć Czarnków | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Mar 2, 2024 | Noteć Czarnków 3-1 Polonia Środa | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 11, 2023 | Polonia Środa 1-4 Noteć Czarnków | III Liga - Group 2 |
Last archived meeting: Noteć Czarnków vs Polonia Środa on May 13, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Noteć Czarnków score 1.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Polonia Środa score 1.9 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noteć Czarnków | 1.7 | 1.3 | 4 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Polonia Środa | 1.9 | 1.2 | 4 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Noteć Czarnków sit 7th in III Liga - Group 2 (9 points from 5 matches) and Polonia Środa sit 1st (15 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Polonia Środa | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 4 | 15 |
| 7 | Noteć Czarnków | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 9 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Noteć Czarnków vs Polonia Środa?
- The Footlab model makes Polonia Środa the favourite at 55%, against 23% for a draw and 23% for Noteć Czarnków.
- Where and when is Noteć Czarnków vs Polonia Środa played?
- Noteć Czarnków vs Polonia Środa is played on September 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Noteć Czarnków, in the III Liga - Group 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 19, 2026Chemik BydgoszczvsKalisz
- Sep 19, 2026Elana ToruńvsLech Poznań II
- Sep 19, 2026Stargard SzczecińskivsVictoria Września
- Sep 19, 2026Unia SwarzędzvsLuzino
- Sep 19, 2026Gedania GdanskvsKotwica Kórnik
- Sep 19, 2026Wda ŚwiecievsKluczevia Stargard
- Sep 19, 2026Grom Nowy StawvsFlota Świnoujście
- Sep 19, 2026Lipno StęszewvsBałtyk Koszalin