Notodden vs Arendal: prediction and stats
2. Division - Group 1Regular Season - 20Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Optime Arena, Notodden
The Footlab model makes Notodden the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Arendal. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Notodden vs Arendal?
A very open match: only 19 Elo points separate Notodden (1,749) and Arendal (1,768).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Notodden have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Arendal have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Åssiden IF(away) | 4-0 | NM Cupen |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Brattvåg(home) | 0-3 | 2. Division - Group 1 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sandviken(home) | 1-0 | 2. Division - Group 1 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Mjondalen(away) | 1-0 | 2. Division - Group 1 |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Sotra(home) | 1-0 | 2. Division - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Froland(away) | 5-1 | NM Cupen |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Vidar(away) | 3-1 | 2. Division - Group 1 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Pors Grenland(home) | 2-1 | 2. Division - Group 1 |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Sotra(away) | 0-3 | 2. Division - Group 1 |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Vidar(home) | 4-0 | 2. Division - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Notodden win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Arendal win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | Arendal 2-2 Notodden | 2. Division - Group 1 |
| Mar 21, 2026 | Arendal 0-1 Notodden | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 17, 2025 | Arendal 4-1 Notodden | 2. Division - Group 1 |
| Apr 21, 2025 | Notodden 1-1 Arendal | 2. Division - Group 1 |
| Jul 13, 2024 | Notodden 0-1 Arendal | 2. Division - Group 1 |
| Jun 1, 2024 | Arendal 1-2 Notodden | 2. Division - Group 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Notodden score 1.6 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Arendal score 1.8 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notodden | 1.6 | 0.8 | 8 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
| Arendal | 1.8 | 1.3 | 3 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Notodden sit 6th in 2. Division - Group 1 (27 points from 16 matches) and Arendal sit 9th (20 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Notodden | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 22 | 14 | 27 |
| 9 | Arendal | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 23 | 25 | 20 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Notodden vs Arendal?
- The Footlab model makes Notodden the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Arendal.
- Where and when is Notodden vs Arendal played?
- Notodden vs Arendal is played on September 20, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Optime Arena, in the 2. Division - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.