jerv vs Notodden: prediction and stats
2. Division - Group 1Regular Season - 21Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)J.J. Ugland Stadion, Grimstad
The Footlab model makes jerv the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 24% for Notodden. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win jerv vs Notodden?
A very open match: only 88 Elo points separate jerv (1,837) and Notodden (1,749).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, jerv have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Notodden have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Fram(away) | 2-1 | NM Cupen |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Sandviken(away) | 2-2 | 2. Division - Group 1 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Vidar(home) | 4-0 | 2. Division - Group 1 |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Træff(away) | 2-3 | 2. Division - Group 1 |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Lysekloster(home) | 1-2 | 2. Division - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Åssiden IF(away) | 4-0 | NM Cupen |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Brattvåg(home) | 0-3 | 2. Division - Group 1 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sandviken(home) | 1-0 | 2. Division - Group 1 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Mjondalen(away) | 1-0 | 2. Division - Group 1 |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Sotra(home) | 1-0 | 2. Division - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 jerv win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Notodden win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | Notodden 0-0 jerv | 2. Division - Group 1 |
| Mar 7, 2026 | Notodden 2-1 jerv | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 20, 2025 | jerv 2-2 Notodden | 2. Division - Group 1 |
| May 25, 2025 | Notodden 2-3 jerv | 2. Division - Group 1 |
| Oct 19, 2024 | jerv 0-0 Notodden | 2. Division - Group 1 |
| Jun 29, 2024 | Notodden 0-1 jerv | 2. Division - Group 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
jerv score 2.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Notodden score 1.6 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| jerv | 2.1 | 1.1 | 3 | 12/15 | 13/15 |
| Notodden | 1.6 | 0.8 | 8 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
jerv sit 1st in 2. Division - Group 1 (36 points from 16 matches) and Notodden sit 6th (27 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | jerv | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 34 | 17 | 36 |
| 6 | Notodden | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 22 | 14 | 27 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for jerv vs Notodden?
- The Footlab model makes jerv the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 24% for Notodden.
- Where and when is jerv vs Notodden played?
- jerv vs Notodden is played on September 26, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at J.J. Ugland Stadion, in the 2. Division - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.