Notts County vs Luton: prediction and stats
League OneRegular Season - 35Kick-off on March 13, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Meadow Lane, Nottingham, Nottinghamshire
The Footlab model makes Luton the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Notts County. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Notts County vs Luton?
Luton starts as the favourite with a 115-point Elo edge (1,945 vs 1,830).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Notts County have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Luton have 11, 3 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Luton(away) | 2-2 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Leicester(home) | 1-1 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Burnley(away) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Walsall(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Nottingham Forest(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Notts County(home) | 2-2 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Reading(away) | 4-3 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Gillingham(away) | 3-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 2, 2026 | GO Ahead Eagles(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Al Kholood(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Notts County win(s), 4 draw(s), 1 Luton win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Luton 2-2 Notts County | League One |
| May 5, 2018 | Notts County 0-0 Luton | League Two |
| Dec 9, 2017 | Luton 1-1 Notts County | League Two |
| Apr 22, 2017 | Luton 2-1 Notts County | League Two |
| Oct 29, 2016 | Notts County 0-0 Luton | League Two |
| Jan 30, 2016 | Luton 0-2 Notts County | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Luton vs Notts County on Aug 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Notts County score 1.1 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Luton score 2.5 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notts County | 1.1 | 1.2 | 6 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Luton | 2.5 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Notts County sit 15th in League One (2 points from 2 matches) and Luton sit 3rd (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Luton | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
| 15 | Notts County | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Notts County vs Luton?
- The Footlab model makes Luton the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Notts County.
- Where and when is Notts County vs Luton played?
- Notts County vs Luton is played on March 13, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Meadow Lane, in the League One.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.