Notts County vs Oxford United: prediction and stats
League OneRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Meadow Lane, Nottingham, Nottinghamshire
The Footlab model makes Notts County the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Oxford United. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Notts County vs Oxford United?
A very open match: only 5 Elo points separate Notts County (1,830) and Oxford United (1,825).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Notts County have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Oxford United have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Luton(away) | 2-2 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Leicester(home) | 1-1 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Burnley(away) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Walsall(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Nottingham Forest(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Stevenage(away) | 2-1 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Milton Keynes Dons(home) | 2-2 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Leyton Orient(away) | 0-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Ipswich(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Crawley Town(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Notts County win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Oxford United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2016 | Notts County 2-4 Oxford United | League Two |
| Aug 18, 2015 | Oxford United 3-1 Notts County | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Notts County vs Oxford United on Jan 2, 2016
How many goals should we expect?
Notts County score 1.1 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Oxford United score 1.5 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notts County | 1.1 | 1.2 | 6 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Oxford United | 1.5 | 1.2 | 2 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Notts County sit 15th in League One (2 points from 2 matches) and Oxford United sit 5th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Oxford United | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 15 | Notts County | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Notts County vs Oxford United?
- The Footlab model makes Notts County the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Oxford United.
- Where and when is Notts County vs Oxford United played?
- Notts County vs Oxford United is played on October 10, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Meadow Lane, in the League One.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.