Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon: prediction and stats
League OneRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Home Park, Plymouth
The Footlab model makes Plymouth the favourite at 68%, against 19% for a draw and 13% for AFC Wimbledon. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon?
Plymouth starts as the favourite with a 189-point Elo edge (1,919 vs 1,730).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Plymouth have 9 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats; AFC Wimbledon have 3, 4 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Coventry(home) | 2-4 | League Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Wycombe(away) | 1-1 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Stockport County(home) | 1-3 | League One |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Exeter City(home) | 2-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Tavistock(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Reading(home) | 0-0 | League One |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Leyton Orient(away) | 1-1 | EFL Trophy |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Huddersfield(away) | 0-3 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Newport County(home) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | QPR(home) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Plymouth win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 AFC Wimbledon win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | AFC Wimbledon 1-3 Plymouth | League One |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Plymouth 1-2 AFC Wimbledon | League One |
| Dec 21, 2022 | Plymouth 3-3 AFC Wimbledon | EFL Trophy |
| Mar 8, 2022 | Plymouth 2-0 AFC Wimbledon | League One |
| Sep 18, 2021 | AFC Wimbledon 0-1 Plymouth | League One |
| Apr 2, 2021 | Plymouth 1-0 AFC Wimbledon | League One |
Last archived meeting: AFC Wimbledon vs Plymouth on Apr 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Plymouth score 2.0 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; AFC Wimbledon score 0.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plymouth | 2.0 | 1.1 | 5 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| AFC Wimbledon | 0.7 | 1.5 | 4 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Plymouth sit 22nd in League One (1 points from 2 matches) and AFC Wimbledon sit 23rd (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Plymouth | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| 23 | AFC Wimbledon | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon?
- The Footlab model makes Plymouth the favourite at 68%, against 19% for a draw and 13% for AFC Wimbledon.
- Where and when is Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon played?
- Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon is played on October 10, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Home Park, in the League One.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.