Novo Esporte Clube vs Nacional AC MG: prediction and stats
Mineiro - 3Regular Season - 4Kick-off on October 9, 2026 at 10:00 PM (UTC)Estádio João Lamego Neto, Ipatinga, Minas Gerais
The Footlab model makes Novo Esporte Clube the favourite at 50%, against 25% for a draw and 25% for Nacional AC MG. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Novo Esporte Clube vs Nacional AC MG?
A very open match: only 42 Elo points separate Novo Esporte Clube (1,637) and Nacional AC MG (1,595).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 11 matches in all competitions, Novo Esporte Clube have 5 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Nacional AC MG have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22, 2025 | Paracatu(away) | 0-0 | Mineiro - 3 |
| Nov 15, 2025 | Coimbra(home) | 0-2 | Mineiro - 3 |
| Nov 9, 2025 | BOA(away) | 0-3 | Mineiro - 3 |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Essube(home) | 2-0 | Mineiro - 3 |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Tupi(away) | 3-0 | Mineiro - 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 21, 2025 | Valeriodoce(away) | 2-2 | Mineiro - 2 |
| Jun 14, 2025 | North Esporte(home) | 0-3 | Mineiro - 2 |
| Jun 7, 2025 | Betim(away) | 0-0 | Mineiro - 2 |
| May 31, 2025 | Guarani MG(home) | 2-1 | Mineiro - 2 |
| May 28, 2025 | Democrata SL(away) | 0-1 | Mineiro - 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
Novo Esporte Clube score 1.2 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 11; Nacional AC MG score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novo Esporte Clube | 1.2 | 0.8 | 7 | 2/11 | 5/11 |
| Nacional AC MG | 1.1 | 1.3 | 4 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 11 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Novo Esporte Clube vs Nacional AC MG?
- The Footlab model makes Novo Esporte Clube the favourite at 50%, against 25% for a draw and 25% for Nacional AC MG.
- Where and when is Novo Esporte Clube vs Nacional AC MG played?
- Novo Esporte Clube vs Nacional AC MG is played on October 9, 2026 at 10:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio João Lamego Neto, in the Mineiro - 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.