Nyva Ternopil vs Yarud Mariupol': prediction and stats
Persha LigaMatchday 25Kick-off on May 1, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Ternopilskyi miskyi stadion im. Romana Shukhevycha, Ternopil
The Footlab AI model makes Yarud Mariupol' the favourite at 47%, against 27% for a draw and 26% for Nyva Ternopil. The most likely score is 1-1. If Yarud Mariupol' wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 6,194 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nyva Ternopil vs Yarud Mariupol'?
A very open match: only 70 Elo points separate Nyva Ternopil (1,566) and Yarud Mariupol' (1,636).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Nyva Ternopil vs Yarud Mariupol'
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Nyva Ternopil
4-3-3- 45A. Boryachuk
- 91D. Rezepov
- 99B. Vyshynskyi
- 17M. Pezhynskyi
- 28A. Gabelok
- 33M. Mysyk
- 75I. Snurnitsyn
- 11M. Mykhalchuk
- 44S. Davydov
- 94V. Burtnyk
- 1M. Mekhaniv
Yarud Mariupol'
4-3-3- 6E. Gunichev
- 9S. Kyslenko
- 29A. Remenyak
- 10P. Orikhovskyi
- 8A. Kukharuk
- 96O. Synytsia
- 15O. Chornomorets
- 33V. Sydorenko
- 20O. Nikolyshyn
- 2R. Gagun
- 1V. Zhupanskyi
Computed on November 15, 2026 at 08:06 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nyva Ternopil have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Yarud Mariupol' have 10, 4 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Polissya II(home) | 4-2 | Persha Liga |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Probiy Horodenka(away) | 2-2 | Persha Liga |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Kulykiv(home) | 3-1 | Persha Liga |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Lokomotiv Kyiv(away) | 0-0 | Persha Liga |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Kolos Kovalivka II(home) | 3-1 | Persha Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 14, 2026 | Viktoriya Mykolaivka(away) | 1-0 | Persha Liga |
| Nov 7, 2026 | Prykarpattia(away) | 1-1 | Persha Liga |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Chernihiv(home) | 3-1 | Persha Liga |
| Oct 23, 2026 | Metal Kharkiv(away) | 2-0 | Persha Liga |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Inhulets(home) | 4-1 | Persha Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Nyva Ternopil wins, 1 draw, 2 Yarud Mariupol' wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | Yarud Mariupol' 0-0 Nyva Ternopil | Persha Liga |
| May 9, 2026 | Nyva Ternopil 0-3 Yarud Mariupol' | Persha Liga |
| Mar 4, 2026 | Nyva Ternopil 3-2 Yarud Mariupol' | Friendlies Clubs |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Yarud Mariupol' 0-2 Nyva Ternopil | Persha Liga |
| May 23, 2025 | Yarud Mariupol' 0-1 Nyva Ternopil | Persha Liga |
| Apr 19, 2025 | Nyva Ternopil 2-3 Yarud Mariupol' | Persha Liga |
Last archived meeting: Yarud Mariupol' vs Nyva Ternopil on Oct 5, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Nyva Ternopil score 1.3 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Yarud Mariupol' score 2.1 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nyva Ternopil | 1.3 | 1.2 | 3 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Yarud Mariupol' | 2.1 | 0.7 | 5 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nyva Ternopil sit 7th in Persha Liga (22 points from 15 matches) and Yarud Mariupol' sit 1st (31 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yarud Mariupol' | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 15 | 31 |
| 7 | Nyva Ternopil | 15 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 21 | 15 | 22 |
A question about Nyva Ternopil vs Yarud Mariupol'?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nyva Ternopil vs Yarud Mariupol'?
- The Footlab AI model makes Yarud Mariupol' the favourite at 47%, against 27% for a draw and 26% for Nyva Ternopil.
- Where and when is Nyva Ternopil vs Yarud Mariupol' played?
- Nyva Ternopil vs Yarud Mariupol' is played on May 1, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Ternopilskyi miskyi stadion im. Romana Shukhevycha, in the Persha Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.