Yarud Mariupol' vs UCSA: prediction and stats
Persha LigaRegular Season - 26Kick-off on May 8, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion SKIF, Lviv
The Footlab AI model makes Yarud Mariupol' the favourite at 67%, against 22% for a draw and 11% for UCSA. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,849 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 20, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Yarud Mariupol' vs UCSA?
On Elo ratings, Yarud Mariupol' has 1,741 points and UCSA 1,650.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Yarud Mariupol' vs UCSA
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Yarud Mariupol'
4-3-3- 6E. Gunichev
- 9S. Kyslenko
- 29A. Remenyak
- 11V. Kucherov
- 10P. Orikhovskyi
- 8A. Kukharuk
- 15O. Chornomorets
- 33V. Sydorenko
- 20O. Nikolyshyn
- 2R. Gagun
- 1V. Zhupanskyi
UCSA
4-3-3- 9O. Khoblenko
- 22Yegor Rogach
- 71Ruan Santos
- 6R. Yuvkhimets
- 49Vitinho
- 73P. Castro
- 15O. Osman
- 35Hiago
- 45D. Sabiyev
- 42D. Makhnev
- 12A. Kovalev
Computed on October 20, 2026 at 12:49 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Yarud Mariupol' have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; UCSA have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Inhulets(home) | 4-1 | Persha Liga |
| Oct 11, 2026 | UCSA(away) | 2-1 | Persha Liga |
| Oct 5, 2026 | Nyva Ternopil(home) | 0-0 | Persha Liga |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Oleksandria(away) | 1-1 | Persha Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Polissya II(home) | 2-1 | Persha Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Kolos Kovalivka II(away) | 0-0 | Persha Liga |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Yarud Mariupol'(home) | 1-2 | Persha Liga |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Ahrobiznes Volochysk(away) | 2-3 | Persha Liga |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Viktoriya Mykolaivka(home) | 0-0 | Persha Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Prykarpattia(away) | 0-1 | Persha Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Yarud Mariupol' win, 2 draws, 2 UCSA wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | UCSA 1-2 Yarud Mariupol' | Persha Liga |
| Nov 30, 2025 | Yarud Mariupol' 1-1 UCSA | Persha Liga |
| Aug 17, 2025 | UCSA 0-0 Yarud Mariupol' | Persha Liga |
| Oct 14, 2024 | UCSA 3-0 Yarud Mariupol' | Persha Liga |
| Aug 26, 2024 | Yarud Mariupol' 2-3 UCSA | Persha Liga |
Last archived meeting: UCSA vs Yarud Mariupol' on Oct 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Yarud Mariupol' score 1.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; UCSA score 1.2 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yarud Mariupol' | 1.7 | 1.1 | 3 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| UCSA | 1.2 | 1.7 | 5 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Yarud Mariupol' sit 5th in Persha Liga (21 points from 12 matches) and UCSA sit 13th (11 points from 12 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Yarud Mariupol' | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 13 | 21 |
| 13 | UCSA | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 19 | 11 |
A question about Yarud Mariupol' vs UCSA?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Yarud Mariupol' vs UCSA?
- The Footlab AI model makes Yarud Mariupol' the favourite at 67%, against 22% for a draw and 11% for UCSA.
- Where and when is Yarud Mariupol' vs UCSA played?
- Yarud Mariupol' vs UCSA is played on May 8, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion SKIF, in the Persha Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.