Olmaliq vs Pakhtakor: prediction and stats
Super LeagueRegular Season - 21Kick-off on September 9, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Metallurg, Almalyk
The Footlab model makes Pakhtakor the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for Olmaliq. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Olmaliq vs Pakhtakor?
Pakhtakor starts as the favourite with a 132-point Elo edge (1,853 vs 1,721).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Olmaliq have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Pakhtakor have 9, 6 and 0.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Dinamo Samarqand(home) | 0-1 | Super League |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Buxoro(away) | 0-2 | Super League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Bunyodkor(away) | 3-2 | Super League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Nasaf(home) | 1-2 | Super League |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Mash'al(home) | 2-1 | Super League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Surkhon(home) | 0-0 | Super League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Nasaf(away) | 2-1 | Super League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Al Hussein(home) | 3-0 | AFC Champions League Elite |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Buxoro(home) | 2-2 | Super League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Andijan(away) | 0-0 | Super League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Olmaliq win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Pakhtakor win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2026 | Pakhtakor 3-1 Olmaliq | Super League |
| Aug 5, 2025 | Pakhtakor 1-2 Olmaliq | Super League |
| Apr 9, 2025 | Pakhtakor 2-1 Olmaliq | Cup |
| Mar 16, 2025 | Olmaliq 2-0 Pakhtakor | Super League |
| Nov 21, 2024 | Pakhtakor 0-2 Olmaliq | Super League |
| Jun 21, 2024 | Olmaliq 4-2 Pakhtakor | Super League |
How many goals should we expect?
Olmaliq score 1.7 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Pakhtakor score 1.7 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olmaliq | 1.7 | 1.4 | 2 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Pakhtakor | 1.7 | 0.8 | 6 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Olmaliq sit 8th in Super League (16 points from 11 matches) and Pakhtakor sit 2nd (26 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Pakhtakor | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 12 | 26 |
| 2 | Pakhtakor | 18 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 30 | 17 | 39 |
| 5 | Olmaliq | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 27 | 25 | 28 |
| 8 | Olmaliq | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 16 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Olmaliq vs Pakhtakor?
- The Footlab model makes Pakhtakor the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for Olmaliq.
- Where and when is Olmaliq vs Pakhtakor played?
- Olmaliq vs Pakhtakor is played on September 9, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Metallurg, in the Super League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.