Lokomotiv vs Mash'al: prediction and stats
Super LeagueRegular Season - 21Kick-off on September 21, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Lokomotiv, Tashkent
The Footlab model makes Lokomotiv the favourite at 70%, against 20% for a draw and 10% for Mash'al. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lokomotiv vs Mash'al?
Lokomotiv starts as the favourite with a 200-point Elo edge (1,666 vs 1,466).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lokomotiv have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Mash'al have 1, 1 and 13.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Xorazm(away) | 3-1 | Super League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Kokand-1912(away) | 1-2 | Super League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Dinamo Samarqand(home) | 2-1 | Super League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Buxoro(away) | 1-2 | Super League |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Sogdiana(home) | 3-1 | Super League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Andijan(home) | 0-1 | Super League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Qizilqum(away) | 0-2 | Super League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Xorazm(away) | 0-2 | Super League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Sogdiana(home) | 1-3 | Super League |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Olmaliq(away) | 1-2 | Super League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Lokomotiv win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Mash'al win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2026 | Mash'al 0-2 Lokomotiv | Super League |
| Sep 27, 2021 | Lokomotiv 2-1 Mash'al | Super League |
| May 5, 2021 | Mash'al 1-4 Lokomotiv | Super League |
| Nov 2, 2020 | Mash'al 0-0 Lokomotiv | Super League |
| Jul 14, 2020 | Lokomotiv 0-1 Mash'al | Super League |
| Aug 7, 2017 | Lokomotiv 1-1 Mash'al | Super League |
How many goals should we expect?
Lokomotiv score 1.5 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Mash'al score 0.5 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
| Mash'al | 0.5 | 1.7 | 1 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lokomotiv sit 6th in Super League (17 points from 11 matches) and Mash'al sit 16th (0 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Lokomotiv | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 17 |
| 6 | Lokomotiv | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 25 | 28 |
| 16 | Mash'al | 11 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| 16 | Mash'al | 18 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 8 | 32 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lokomotiv vs Mash'al?
- The Footlab model makes Lokomotiv the favourite at 70%, against 20% for a draw and 10% for Mash'al.
- Where and when is Lokomotiv vs Mash'al played?
- Lokomotiv vs Mash'al is played on September 21, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Lokomotiv, in the Super League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.