Septemvri Dragoevo vs Ludogorets III: prediction and stats
Third League - NortheastNortheast - 14Kick-off on November 14, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Ludogorets III the favourite at 63%, against 19% for a draw and 18% for Septemvri Dragoevo. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Septemvri Dragoevo vs Ludogorets III?
Ludogorets III starts as the favourite with a 284-point Elo edge (1,756 vs 1,472).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 1 matches in all competitions, Septemvri Dragoevo have 1 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats; Ludogorets III have 13, 0 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Aksakovo(home) | 4-2 | Third League - Northeast |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cherno more II(home) | 2-1 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 30, 2026 | Benkovski Isperih(away) | 0-1 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 24, 2026 | Chernolomets 1919(home) | 3-1 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 20, 2026 | Septemvri Tervel(away) | 1-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 16, 2026 | Svetkavitsa Targovishte(away) | 3-0 | Third League - Northeast |
How many goals should we expect?
Septemvri Dragoevo score 4.0 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 1; Ludogorets III score 3.2 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 70% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Septemvri Dragoevo | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0 | 1/1 | 1/1 |
| Ludogorets III | 3.2 | 0.7 | 8 | 6/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 1 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Septemvri Dragoevo sit 3rd in Third League - Northeast (3 points from 1 matches) and Ludogorets III sit 5th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Septemvri Dragoevo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| 5 | Ludogorets III | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Septemvri Dragoevo vs Ludogorets III?
- The Footlab model makes Ludogorets III the favourite at 63%, against 19% for a draw and 18% for Septemvri Dragoevo.
- Where and when is Septemvri Dragoevo vs Ludogorets III played?
- Septemvri Dragoevo vs Ludogorets III is played on November 14, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC), in the Third League - Northeast.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 70% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.