Where and when is Orange County SC vs Monterey Bay played?

Orange County SC vs Monterey Bay is played on October 4, 2026 at 02:00 AM (UTC) at Championship Soccer Stadium, in the USL Championship.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Orange County SC vs Monterey Bay: prediction and stats

USL ChampionshipGroup StageKick-off on October 4, 2026 at 02:00 AM (UTC)Championship Soccer Stadium, Irvine, California

Orange County SC

Monterey Bay

The Footlab model makes Orange County SC the favourite at 54%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Monterey Bay. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Orange County SC vs Monterey Bay?

Orange County SC starts as the favourite with a 145-point Elo edge (1,723 vs 1,578).

Orange County SC win54 %

Draw24 %

Monterey Bay win22 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Orange County SC have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Monterey Bay have 4, 3 and 8.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Orange County SC
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	FC Tulsa(home)	1-5	USL Championship
Aug 16, 2026	Louisville City(home)	2-3	USL Championship
Aug 9, 2026	Tampa Bay Rowdies(home)	0-3	USL Championship
Aug 2, 2026	El Paso Locomotive(home)	2-0	USL Championship
Jul 26, 2026	Monterey Bay(away)	2-1	USL Championship

Monterey Bay
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Rhode Island(away)	1-3	USL Championship
Aug 16, 2026	Oakland Roots(away)	1-1	USL Championship
Aug 9, 2026	New Mexico United(home)	2-5	USL Championship
Aug 6, 2026	El Paso Locomotive(away)	0-1	USL Championship
Aug 1, 2026	Lexington(away)	2-3	USL Championship

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Orange County SC win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Monterey Bay win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Jul 26, 2026	Monterey Bay 1-2 Orange County SC	USL Championship
Jul 12, 2025	Monterey Bay 2-1 Orange County SC	USL Championship
Jun 1, 2025	Monterey Bay 3-2 Orange County SC	USL League One Cup
Mar 23, 2025	Orange County SC 0-3 Monterey Bay	USL Championship
Sep 22, 2024	Monterey Bay 0-0 Orange County SC	USL Championship
Apr 28, 2024	Orange County SC 2-0 Monterey Bay	USL Championship

Last archived meeting: Monterey Bay vs Orange County SC on Jul 26, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Orange County SC score 1.7 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Monterey Bay score 1.4 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Orange County SC	1.7	2.1	1	12/15	12/15
Monterey Bay	1.4	1.7	3	10/15	8/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Orange County SC sit 2nd in USL Championship (20 points from 12 matches) and Monterey Bay sit 12th (11 points from 13 matches).

2026 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
2	Orange County SC	12	5	5	2	15	11	20
2	Orange County SC	21	9	7	5	32	30	34
12	Monterey Bay	13	3	2	8	13	22	11
12	Monterey Bay	22	4	4	14	23	40	16

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Orange County SC vs Monterey Bay?: The Footlab model makes Orange County SC the favourite at 54%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Monterey Bay.
Where and when is Orange County SC vs Monterey Bay played?: Orange County SC vs Monterey Bay is played on October 4, 2026 at 02:00 AM (UTC) at Championship Soccer Stadium, in the USL Championship.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.