Orel vs Rodina Moskva III: prediction and stats
Second League - Group 3Group 3 - 30Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Central'nyj im. V.I. Lenina, Oryol (Orel)
The Footlab model makes Rodina Moskva III the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Orel. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Orel vs Rodina Moskva III?
A very open match: only 35 Elo points separate Orel (1,529) and Rodina Moskva III (1,564).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Orel have 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats; Rodina Moskva III have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ryazan(home) | 0-2 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rotor-2(away) | 0-0 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kvant(home) | 2-1 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Salyut-Belgorod(away) | 0-3 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Jul 28, 2026 | 2Drots(away) | 0-2 | Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Volna Nizhegorodskaya(home) | 1-1 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ryazan(away) | 0-3 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Rotor-2(home) | 2-1 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Kvant(away) | 4-1 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Salyut-Belgorod(home) | 1-3 | Second League - Group 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Orel win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Rodina Moskva III win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | Rodina Moskva III 0-1 Orel | Second League - Group 3 |
| Jul 26, 2025 | Rodina Moskva III 2-2 Orel | Second League - Group 3 |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Orel 0-2 Rodina Moskva III | Second League - Group 3 |
Last archived meeting: Rodina Moskva III vs Orel on Mar 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Orel score 0.9 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Rodina Moskva III score 1.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orel | 0.9 | 2.0 | 2 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Rodina Moskva III | 1.9 | 1.5 | 2 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Orel sit 11th in Second League - Group 3 (23 points from 20 matches) and Rodina Moskva III sit 9th (25 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Rodina Moskva III | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 36 | 34 | 25 |
| 11 | Orel | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 24 | 35 | 23 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Orel vs Rodina Moskva III?
- The Footlab model makes Rodina Moskva III the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Orel.
- Where and when is Orel vs Rodina Moskva III played?
- Orel vs Rodina Moskva III is played on October 31, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Central'nyj im. V.I. Lenina, in the Second League - Group 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.