Orlando City II vs Crown Legacy: prediction and stats
MLS Next ProGroup StageKick-off on August 30, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC)Osceola Heritage Park, Kissimmee, Florida
The Footlab model makes Crown Legacy the favourite at 53%, against 21% for a draw and 26% for Orlando City II. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Orlando City II vs Crown Legacy?
Crown Legacy starts as the favourite with a 109-point Elo edge (1,693 vs 1,584).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Orlando City II have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Crown Legacy have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Atlanta United II(away) | 1-5 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Chicago Fire II(away) | 0-2 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 11, 2026 | New York City II(away) | 0-3 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Connecticut FC(away) | 2-4 | MLS Next Pro |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Huntsville City(home) | 0-1 | MLS Next Pro |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Chattanooga(home) | 3-1 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Connecticut FC(home) | 0-2 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Huntsville City(away) | 2-2 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Inter Miami II(away) | 2-0 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Huntsville City(away) | 3-1 | MLS Next Pro |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Orlando City II win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 Crown Legacy win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 5, 2026 | Crown Legacy 1-1 Orlando City II | MLS Next Pro |
| May 3, 2026 | Orlando City II 2-2 Crown Legacy | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Orlando City II 1-0 Crown Legacy | MLS Next Pro |
| Jul 6, 2025 | Crown Legacy 2-2 Orlando City II | MLS Next Pro |
| Mar 26, 2025 | Crown Legacy 0-1 Orlando City II | MLS Next Pro |
| Sep 8, 2024 | Crown Legacy 1-4 Orlando City II | MLS Next Pro |
Last archived meeting: Crown Legacy vs Orlando City II on Jul 5, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Orlando City II score 1.6 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Crown Legacy score 2.0 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 75% probability of over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando City II | 1.6 | 1.9 | 0 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Crown Legacy | 2.0 | 1.5 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Orlando City II sit 5th in MLS Next Pro (35 points from 24 matches) and Crown Legacy sit 1st (48 points from 23 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crown Legacy | 23 | 17 | 0 | 6 | 54 | 32 | 48 |
| 1 | Crown Legacy | 23 | 17 | 0 | 6 | 54 | 32 | 48 |
| 1 | Crown Legacy | 22 | 17 | 0 | 5 | 54 | 30 | 48 |
| 5 | Orlando City II | 24 | 12 | 0 | 12 | 43 | 48 | 35 |
| 9 | Orlando City II | 23 | 12 | 0 | 11 | 42 | 43 | 35 |
| 10 | Orlando City II | 24 | 12 | 0 | 12 | 43 | 48 | 35 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Orlando City II vs Crown Legacy?
- The Footlab model makes Crown Legacy the favourite at 53%, against 21% for a draw and 26% for Orlando City II.
- Where and when is Orlando City II vs Crown Legacy played?
- Orlando City II vs Crown Legacy is played on August 30, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC) at Osceola Heritage Park, in the MLS Next Pro.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 75% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Feb 28, 2026Inter Miami II1-1Chicago Fire II
- Feb 28, 2026Philadelphia Union II1-0Toronto II
- Feb 28, 2026St. Louis City II4-0Sporting KC II
- Mar 1, 2026Chattanooga1-4Crown Legacy
- Mar 1, 2026Portland Timbers II2-1The Town
- Mar 1, 2026New York RB II4-2Columbus Crew II
- Mar 1, 2026Real Monarchs2-2North Texas
- Mar 1, 2026FC Cincinnati II1-3Connecticut FC