Orsomarso vs Real Cartagena: prediction and stats
Primera BClausura - 8Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Daniel Villa Zapata, Barrancabermeja
The Footlab model makes Real Cartagena the favourite at 39%, against 31% for a draw and 30% for Orsomarso. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Orsomarso vs Real Cartagena?
Real Cartagena starts as the favourite with a 108-point Elo edge (1,621 vs 1,513).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Orsomarso have 4 wins, 8 draws and 3 defeats; Real Cartagena have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Real Soacha(home) | 2-0 | Primera B |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Patriotas(away) | 1-1 | Primera B |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Union Magdalena(away) | 0-0 | Primera B |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Barranquilla(home) | 1-0 | Primera B |
| May 20, 2026 | Fortaleza FC(away) | 1-1 | Copa Colombia |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Leones FC(away) | 6-1 | Primera B |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Bogota FC(home) | 2-0 | Primera B |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Ind. Yumbo(home) | 0-2 | Primera B |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Real Soacha(away) | 1-1 | Primera B |
| Jul 30, 2026 | America de Cali(home) | 1-1 | Copa Colombia |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Orsomarso win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 Real Cartagena win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | Real Cartagena 4-0 Orsomarso | Primera B |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Real Cartagena 3-1 Orsomarso | Primera B |
| Apr 11, 2025 | Orsomarso 1-2 Real Cartagena | Primera B |
| Nov 23, 2024 | Orsomarso 0-1 Real Cartagena | Primera B |
| Oct 31, 2024 | Real Cartagena 2-1 Orsomarso | Primera B |
| Oct 14, 2024 | Orsomarso 1-0 Real Cartagena | Primera B |
Last archived meeting: Real Cartagena vs Orsomarso on Mar 6, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Orsomarso score 1.0 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Real Cartagena score 1.8 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 36% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orsomarso | 1.0 | 0.9 | 6 | 7/15 | 2/15 |
| Real Cartagena | 1.8 | 1.2 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Orsomarso sit 10th in Primera B (17 points from 15 matches) and Real Cartagena sit 5th (27 points from 17 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Cartagena | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 13 |
| 1 | Real Cartagena | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 5 | 10 |
| 1 | Real Cartagena | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 48 | 30 | 50 |
| 3 | Real Cartagena | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 4 |
| 3 | Orsomarso | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 8 |
| 5 | Real Cartagena | 17 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 26 | 19 | 27 |
| 5 | Real Cartagena | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 26 |
| 7 | Orsomarso | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Orsomarso | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 17 | 17 |
| 10 | Orsomarso | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 17 | 17 |
| 11 | Orsomarso | 19 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 17 | 18 | 25 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Orsomarso vs Real Cartagena?
- The Footlab model makes Real Cartagena the favourite at 39%, against 31% for a draw and 30% for Orsomarso.
- Where and when is Orsomarso vs Real Cartagena played?
- Orsomarso vs Real Cartagena is played on September 5, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Daniel Villa Zapata, in the Primera B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 36% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.