Union Magdalena vs Barranquilla: prediction and stats
Primera BClausura - 8Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Sierra Nevada, Santa Marta
The Footlab model makes Union Magdalena the favourite at 58%, against 24% for a draw and 17% for Barranquilla. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Union Magdalena vs Barranquilla?
Union Magdalena starts as the favourite with a 148-point Elo edge (1,622 vs 1,474).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Union Magdalena have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Barranquilla have 3, 7 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Tigres FC(away) | 0-1 | Primera B |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Santa Fe(away) | 0-2 | Copa Colombia |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Orsomarso(home) | 0-0 | Primera B |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Bogota FC(away) | 0-1 | Primera B |
| May 21, 2026 | Bogota FC(home) | 0-0 | Primera B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Internacional Palmira(away) | 0-1 | Primera B |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Real Santander(away) | 2-2 | Primera B |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Depor FC(home) | 2-2 | Primera B |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Junior(home) | 3-3 | Copa Colombia |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Orsomarso(away) | 0-1 | Primera B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Union Magdalena win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Barranquilla win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Barranquilla 1-1 Union Magdalena | Primera B |
| May 4, 2026 | Union Magdalena 2-0 Barranquilla | Primera B |
| Mar 4, 2026 | Barranquilla 1-3 Union Magdalena | Primera B |
| Aug 12, 2024 | Barranquilla 1-1 Union Magdalena | Primera B |
| Feb 20, 2024 | Union Magdalena 1-3 Barranquilla | Primera B |
| Sep 26, 2021 | Union Magdalena 3-0 Barranquilla | Primera B |
Last archived meeting: Barranquilla vs Union Magdalena on May 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Union Magdalena score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Barranquilla score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Magdalena | 1.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
| Barranquilla | 1.3 | 1.3 | 3 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Union Magdalena sit 3rd in Primera B (32 points from 15 matches) and Barranquilla sit 7th (20 points from 15 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Union Magdalena | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 15 | 32 |
| 2 | Union Magdalena | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 9 |
| 3 | Union Magdalena | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 15 | 32 |
| 3 | Barranquilla | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
| 5 | Union Magdalena | 24 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 35 | 21 | 42 |
| 7 | Barranquilla | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 21 | 20 | 20 |
| 7 | Barranquilla | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 21 | 20 | 20 |
| 8 | Barranquilla | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 30 | 32 | 28 |
| 14 | Barranquilla | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 14 | Barranquilla | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 2 |
| 16 | Union Magdalena | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 16 | Union Magdalena | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Union Magdalena vs Barranquilla?
- The Footlab model makes Union Magdalena the favourite at 58%, against 24% for a draw and 17% for Barranquilla.
- Where and when is Union Magdalena vs Barranquilla played?
- Union Magdalena vs Barranquilla is played on September 5, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Sierra Nevada, in the Primera B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.