Ovarense vs Guarda: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group BGroup B - 9Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Marques da Silva, Ovar
The Footlab AI model makes Ovarense the favourite at 46%, against 29% for a draw and 25% for Guarda. The most likely score is 1-1. If Ovarense wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ovarense vs Guarda?
A very open match: only 48 Elo points separate Ovarense (1,913) and Guarda (1,865).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Ovarense vs Guarda
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Ovarense
Not enough data to predict the Ovarense lineup.
Guarda
4-3-3- DDeivison
- SSérgio Assis Capitango Fernando Santos
- 22Daniel Semedo
- 83Tiago Luís
- TT. Nang
- IIsnaba Ioncana
- HHugo Alexandre Bulak Gavino
- 21Rogério Fernandes
- GG. Benjumea
- RRafael Tavares
- 99Ricardo Jorge Oliveira Morais
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 12:42 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 9 matches in all competitions, Ovarense have 5 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats; Guarda have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Os Marialvas(home) | 0-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Sousense(home) | 2-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Aug 23, 2026 | União Lamas(home) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Castro Daire(away) | 2-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Sep 20, 2025 | SC Covilha(home) | 2-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Chaves(home) | 2-3 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Camacha(home) | 2-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Sep 6, 2026 | União Lamas(away) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Académico do Fundão(away) | 6-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Florgrade(away) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
How many goals should we expect?
Ovarense score 2.1 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 9; Guarda score 1.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ovarense | 2.1 | 0.8 | 4 | 4/8 | 3/8 |
| Guarda | 1.3 | 1.5 | 2 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 9 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ovarense sit 1st in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B (12 points from 4 matches) and Guarda sit 13th (1 point from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ovarense | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 12 |
| 13 | Guarda | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
A question about Ovarense vs Guarda?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ovarense vs Guarda?
- The Footlab AI model makes Ovarense the favourite at 46%, against 29% for a draw and 25% for Guarda.
- Where and when is Ovarense vs Guarda played?
- Ovarense vs Guarda is played on November 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Marques da Silva, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.