Ovarense vs Guarda: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group BGroup B - 9Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Marques da Silva, Ovar
The Footlab model makes Ovarense the favourite at 43%, against 30% for a draw and 27% for Guarda. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ovarense vs Guarda?
A very open match: only 48 Elo points separate Ovarense (1,816) and Guarda (1,768).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 6 matches in all competitions, Ovarense have 3 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeats; Guarda have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | União Lamas(home) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Castro Daire(away) | 2-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Sep 20, 2025 | SC Covilha(home) | 2-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Aug 31, 2025 | SC Celoricense(home) | 7-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 7, 2024 | São João Ver(home) | 1-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Florgrade(away) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Alpendorada(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Régua(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Leça(away) | 2-6 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Beira-Mar(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
How many goals should we expect?
Ovarense score 2.3 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 6; Guarda score 0.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ovarense | 2.3 | 1.0 | 2 | 4/6 | 3/6 |
| Guarda | 0.9 | 1.1 | 4 | 6/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 6 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ovarense sit 1st in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B (6 points from 2 matches) and Guarda sit 13th (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ovarense | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 13 | Guarda | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ovarense vs Guarda?
- The Footlab model makes Ovarense the favourite at 43%, against 30% for a draw and 27% for Guarda.
- Where and when is Ovarense vs Guarda played?
- Ovarense vs Guarda is played on November 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Marques da Silva, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.