Paganese vs Monastir: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone GGroup G - 32Kick-off on April 18, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Marcello Torre, Pagani
The Footlab model makes Paganese the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Monastir. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Paganese vs Monastir?
A very open match: only 11 Elo points separate Paganese (1,757) and Monastir (1,745).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Paganese have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Monastir have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Martina Franca(away) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone H |
| May 10, 2026 | Città di Fasano(away) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone H |
| May 3, 2026 | Città di Fasano(away) | 0-6 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Nola 1925(home) | 5-0 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Gravina(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Trastevere(away) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone G |
| May 10, 2026 | Flaminia(home) | 3-3 | Serie D - Girone G |
| May 2, 2026 | USD Palmese(away) | 2-0 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Nocerina(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Albalonga(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone G |
How many goals should we expect?
Paganese score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Monastir score 1.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paganese | 1.3 | 1.5 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Monastir | 1.7 | 1.3 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Monastir | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 51 | 44 | 53 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Paganese vs Monastir?
- The Footlab model makes Paganese the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Monastir.
- Where and when is Paganese vs Monastir played?
- Paganese vs Monastir is played on April 18, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Marcello Torre, in the Serie D - Girone G.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.