Paide vs FC Levadia Tallinn: prediction and stats
MeistriliigaRegular Season - 26Kick-off on September 6, 2026 at 11:30 AM (UTC)Paide linnastaadion, Paide
The Footlab model makes FC Levadia Tallinn the favourite at 57%, against 23% for a draw and 19% for Paide. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Paide vs FC Levadia Tallinn?
FC Levadia Tallinn starts as the favourite with a 154-point Elo edge (1,840 vs 1,685).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Paide have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; FC Levadia Tallinn have 11, 2 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Nõmme United(home) | 4-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Trans Narva(away) | 1-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Rapid Vienna(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Rapid Vienna(home) | 1-4 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Kuressaare(home) | 1-0 | Meistriliiga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Trans Narva(home) | 4-0 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Laagri(away) | 2-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Nõmme United(home) | 5-0 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Vaprus(away) | 1-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Jul 30, 2026 | IFK Goteborg(home) | 1-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Paide win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 FC Levadia Tallinn win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Paide 1-3 FC Levadia Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
| Mar 22, 2026 | FC Levadia Tallinn 2-2 Paide | Meistriliiga |
| Oct 22, 2025 | FC Levadia Tallinn 1-2 Paide | Meistriliiga |
| Jul 4, 2025 | Paide 0-3 FC Levadia Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
| May 11, 2025 | FC Levadia Tallinn 2-1 Paide | Meistriliiga |
| Apr 23, 2025 | Paide 2-1 FC Levadia Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
Last archived meeting: Paide vs FC Levadia Tallinn on May 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Paide score 1.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; FC Levadia Tallinn score 2.8 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paide | 1.5 | 1.3 | 4 | 10/15 | 6/15 |
| FC Levadia Tallinn | 2.8 | 0.9 | 5 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Paide sit 4th in Meistriliiga (39 points from 23 matches) and FC Levadia Tallinn sit 1st (56 points from 23 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 23 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 61 | 18 | 56 |
| 4 | Paide | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 38 | 30 | 39 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Paide vs FC Levadia Tallinn?
- The Footlab model makes FC Levadia Tallinn the favourite at 57%, against 23% for a draw and 19% for Paide.
- Where and when is Paide vs FC Levadia Tallinn played?
- Paide vs FC Levadia Tallinn is played on September 6, 2026 at 11:30 AM (UTC) at Paide linnastaadion, in the Meistriliiga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.