Kuressaare vs Trans Narva: prediction and stats
MeistriliigaRegular Season - 26Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 11:30 AM (UTC)Kuressaare linnastaadion, Kuressaare
The Footlab model makes Kuressaare the favourite at 59%, against 25% for a draw and 16% for Trans Narva. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kuressaare vs Trans Narva?
A very open match: only 5 Elo points separate Kuressaare (1,488) and Trans Narva (1,483).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kuressaare have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Trans Narva have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Tammeka(away) | 0-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Flora Tallinn(away) | 3-2 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Kristiine JK(away) | 8-0 | Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Laagri(home) | 3-2 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Paide(away) | 0-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | FC Levadia Tallinn(away) | 0-4 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Paide(home) | 1-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Kompanii Marjamaa(home) | 8-0 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kalju Nomme(home) | 0-2 | Meistriliiga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Nõmme United(away) | 2-1 | Meistriliiga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Kuressaare win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Trans Narva win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 16, 2026 | Kuressaare 0-0 Trans Narva | Meistriliiga |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Trans Narva 1-2 Kuressaare | Meistriliiga |
| Feb 21, 2026 | Kuressaare 2-2 Trans Narva | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Kuressaare 0-0 Trans Narva | Meistriliiga |
| Jul 5, 2025 | Trans Narva 3-2 Kuressaare | Meistriliiga |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Kuressaare 2-1 Trans Narva | Meistriliiga |
Last archived meeting: Kuressaare vs Trans Narva on Jun 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Kuressaare score 1.8 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Trans Narva score 1.8 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuressaare | 1.8 | 1.3 | 3 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Trans Narva | 1.8 | 1.4 | 5 | 5/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Kuressaare sit 9th in Meistriliiga (24 points from 24 matches) and Trans Narva sit 10th (17 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Kuressaare | 24 | 7 | 3 | 14 | 25 | 39 | 24 |
| 10 | Trans Narva | 24 | 5 | 2 | 17 | 18 | 55 | 17 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kuressaare vs Trans Narva?
- The Footlab model makes Kuressaare the favourite at 59%, against 25% for a draw and 16% for Trans Narva.
- Where and when is Kuressaare vs Trans Narva played?
- Kuressaare vs Trans Narva is played on September 5, 2026 at 11:30 AM (UTC) at Kuressaare linnastaadion, in the Meistriliiga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.