Paloma vs Sasel: prediction and stats
Oberliga - HamburgHamburg - 6Kick-off on September 6, 2026 at 08:45 AM (UTC)Jonny Rehbein Sportplatz, Hamburg
The Footlab model makes Paloma the favourite at 58%, against 19% for a draw and 23% for Sasel. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Paloma vs Sasel?
Paloma starts as the favourite with a 111-point Elo edge (1,910 vs 1,799).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Paloma have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Sasel have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Pinneberg(home) | 2-2 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Victoria Hamburg(away) | 5-1 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Vorwärts-Wacker 04(home) | 1-2 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Jul 24, 2026 | HT16(away) | 3-2 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| May 15, 2026 | Türkiye(away) | 6-0 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Harksheide(home) | 3-1 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Altona 93(away) | 2-0 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Buchholz(home) | 0-4 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| May 15, 2026 | Eimsbütteler TV(away) | 0-4 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| May 10, 2026 | HT16(home) | 4-6 | Oberliga - Hamburg |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Paloma win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Sasel win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Paloma 2-2 Sasel | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Aug 17, 2025 | Sasel 4-4 Paloma | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Dec 7, 2024 | Sasel 1-2 Paloma | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Aug 18, 2024 | Paloma 3-1 Sasel | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Apr 7, 2024 | Paloma 1-1 Sasel | Oberliga - Hamburg |
| Oct 8, 2023 | Sasel 2-1 Paloma | Oberliga - Hamburg |
How many goals should we expect?
Paloma score 2.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Sasel score 2.5 and concede 2.4. The model gives a 79% probability of over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paloma | 2.7 | 1.7 | 3 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
| Sasel | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Paloma sit 5th in Oberliga - Hamburg (61 points from 34 matches) and Sasel sit 10th (50 points from 34 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Paloma | 34 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 84 | 50 | 61 |
| 10 | Sasel | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 91 | 88 | 50 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Paloma vs Sasel?
- The Footlab model makes Paloma the favourite at 58%, against 19% for a draw and 23% for Sasel.
- Where and when is Paloma vs Sasel played?
- Paloma vs Sasel is played on September 6, 2026 at 08:45 AM (UTC) at Jonny Rehbein Sportplatz, in the Oberliga - Hamburg.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 79% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.