Paradiso vs Lugano II: prediction and stats
1. Liga PromotionGroup StageKick-off on October 3, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Campo Pian Scairolo, Collina d’Oro
The Footlab model makes Paradiso the favourite at 55%, against 21% for a draw and 24% for Lugano II. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Paradiso vs Lugano II?
A very open match: only 68 Elo points separate Paradiso (1,644) and Lugano II (1,576).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Paradiso have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Lugano II have 2, 5 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kreuzlingen(home) | 1-1 | 1. Liga Promotion |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Breitenrain(home) | 1-2 | 1. Liga Promotion |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Cham(away) | 2-0 | 1. Liga Promotion |
| Aug 2, 2026 | FC Schaffhausen(home) | 1-2 | 1. Liga Promotion |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Catanzaro(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Biel-Bienne(away) | 2-5 | 1. Liga Promotion |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Luzern II(home) | 4-3 | 1. Liga Promotion |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Young Boys II(away) | 1-3 | 1. Liga Promotion |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Bulle(home) | 1-4 | 1. Liga Promotion |
| May 30, 2026 | Kreuzlingen(away) | 1-1 | 1. Liga Promotion |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Paradiso win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Lugano II win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 15, 2026 | Paradiso 1-1 Lugano II | 1. Liga Promotion |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Lugano II 2-2 Paradiso | 1. Liga Promotion |
| Apr 26, 2025 | Lugano II 1-1 Paradiso | 1. Liga Promotion |
| Nov 30, 2024 | Paradiso 2-1 Lugano II | 1. Liga Promotion |
| Mar 9, 2024 | Paradiso 1-0 Lugano II | 1. Liga Promotion |
| Sep 2, 2023 | Lugano II 2-1 Paradiso | 1. Liga Promotion |
Last archived meeting: Paradiso vs Lugano II on Apr 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Paradiso score 1.1 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Lugano II score 1.3 and concede 2.7. The model gives a 70% probability of over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paradiso | 1.1 | 1.5 | 6 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| Lugano II | 1.3 | 2.7 | 1 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Paradiso sit 11th in 1. Liga Promotion (4 points from 4 matches) and Lugano II sit 17th (3 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Paradiso | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| 17 | Lugano II | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Paradiso vs Lugano II?
- The Footlab model makes Paradiso the favourite at 55%, against 21% for a draw and 24% for Lugano II.
- Where and when is Paradiso vs Lugano II played?
- Paradiso vs Lugano II is played on October 3, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Campo Pian Scairolo, in the 1. Liga Promotion.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 70% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.