Paredes vs Trofense: prediction and stats
Liga 3Regular Season - 7Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal das Laranjeiras, Paredes
The Footlab AI model makes Paredes the favourite at 71%, against 18% for a draw and 11% for Trofense. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Paredes vs Trofense?
Paredes starts as the favourite with a 160-point Elo edge (2,084 vs 1,924).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Paredes vs Trofense
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Paredes
4-3-3- 11F. Almara
- 7Miguel
- 14Erik
- 8Diogo Silva
- 10Daniel Rodrigues
- 6B. Val
- 3Dénis Duarte
- 13João Vigário
- 44Gustavo Fernandes
- 2P. Araujo
- 31Fábio Matos
Trofense
4-3-3- 17Luis Miguel
- 11Kiki
- 30Feliz Vaz
- 6S. Ufala
- 8P. Teixeira
- 32J. Gunjo
- 21T. Oliveira
- 50T. Silva
- 70R. Peixoto
- 4J. Vale
- 31Manuel Baldé
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 12:08 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Paredes have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Trofense have 2, 5 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Vianense(away) | 3-3 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Maria da Fonte(home) | 5-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Fafe(home) | 2-1 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Varzim(away) | 1-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Ermesinde(away) | 3-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Fafe(away) | 2-2 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Leça(home) | 1-4 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Guimaraes B(away) | 0-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Varzim(away) | 1-5 | Taça de Portugal |
| Aug 22, 2026 | São João Ver(home) | 1-0 | Liga 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Paredes win, 3 draws, 2 Trofense wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | Trofense 0-0 Paredes | Liga 3 |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Paredes 0-0 Trofense | Liga 3 |
| Apr 11, 2021 | Paredes 0-1 Trofense | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Jan 10, 2021 | Trofense 0-0 Paredes | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Feb 2, 2020 | Paredes 0-1 Trofense | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Aug 31, 2019 | Trofense 1-4 Paredes | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
How many goals should we expect?
Paredes score 2.2 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Trofense score 0.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paredes | 2.2 | 1.3 | 3 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Trofense | 0.5 | 1.5 | 4 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Paredes sit 1st in Liga 3 (13 points from 6 matches) and Trofense sit 9th (5 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paredes | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 13 |
| 9 | Trofense | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 5 |
A question about Paredes vs Trofense?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Paredes vs Trofense?
- The Footlab AI model makes Paredes the favourite at 71%, against 18% for a draw and 11% for Trofense.
- Where and when is Paredes vs Trofense played?
- Paredes vs Trofense is played on October 25, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal das Laranjeiras, in the Liga 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.