Varzim vs Guimaraes B: prediction and stats
Liga 3Regular Season - 7Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Varzim Sport Club, Póvoa de Varzim
The Footlab model makes Varzim the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 30% for Guimaraes B. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Varzim vs Guimaraes B?
A very open match: only 0 Elo points separate Varzim (1,948) and Guimaraes B (1,948).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Varzim have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Guimaraes B have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Pacos Ferreira(away) | 4-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | AD Marco 09(home) | 2-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Trofense(away) | 1-0 | Liga 3 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Tirsense(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Tondela(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Fafe(away) | 1-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Leça(home) | 2-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Paredes(away) | 1-3 | Liga 3 |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Chaves(away) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 16, 2026 | Amarante(home) | 1-3 | Liga 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Varzim win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Guimaraes B win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Varzim 2-2 Guimaraes B | Liga 3 |
| Feb 28, 2026 | Guimaraes B 3-0 Varzim | Liga 3 |
| Jan 11, 2026 | Guimaraes B 1-2 Varzim | Liga 3 |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Varzim 1-1 Guimaraes B | Liga 3 |
| Feb 19, 2023 | Guimaraes B 2-1 Varzim | Liga 3 |
| Nov 4, 2022 | Varzim 2-0 Guimaraes B | Liga 3 |
Last archived meeting: Varzim vs Guimaraes B on Apr 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Varzim score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Guimaraes B score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Varzim | 1.1 | 1.1 | 4 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Guimaraes B | 1.3 | 1.3 | 4 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Varzim sit 1st in Liga 3 (9 points from 3 matches) and Guimaraes B sit 5th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Varzim | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| 5 | Guimaraes B | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Varzim vs Guimaraes B?
- The Footlab model makes Varzim the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 30% for Guimaraes B.
- Where and when is Varzim vs Guimaraes B played?
- Varzim vs Guimaraes B is played on October 25, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Varzim Sport Club, in the Liga 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.