Pasaia KE vs Derio: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 9Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Campo de fútbol Jesus Mari Zamora, Errenteria
The Footlab AI model makes Derio the favourite at 50%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Pasaia KE. The most likely score is 1-1. If Derio wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,451 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Pasaia KE vs Derio?
Derio starts as the favourite with a 155-point Elo edge (1,807 vs 1,652).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Pasaia KE vs Derio
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Pasaia KE
Not enough data to predict the Pasaia KE lineup.
Derio
Not enough data to predict the Derio lineup.
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 12:53 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pasaia KE have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Derio have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Aretxabaleta(away) | 2-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Santurtzi(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | San Ignacio(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Real Sociedad III(home) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Leioa(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Durango(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Beasain(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Aretxabaleta(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Santurtzi(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Salamanca UDS(home) | 3-5 | Copa Federacion |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Pasaia KE win, 1 draw, 4 Derio wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2026 | Pasaia KE 0-4 Derio | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Derio 0-1 Pasaia KE | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Derio 3-1 Pasaia KE | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Nov 30, 2024 | Pasaia KE 2-2 Derio | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Mar 27, 2024 | Derio 1-0 Pasaia KE | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Nov 11, 2023 | Pasaia KE 0-3 Derio | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
How many goals should we expect?
Pasaia KE score 1.1 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Derio score 1.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pasaia KE | 1.1 | 1.7 | 4 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Derio | 1.0 | 1.1 | 5 | 5/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Pasaia KE sit 7th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (10 points from 6 matches) and Derio sit 3rd (12 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Derio | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | Pasaia KE | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 10 | 10 |
A question about Pasaia KE vs Derio?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Pasaia KE vs Derio?
- The Footlab AI model makes Derio the favourite at 50%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Pasaia KE.
- Where and when is Pasaia KE vs Derio played?
- Pasaia KE vs Derio is played on November 1, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Campo de fútbol Jesus Mari Zamora, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.