Pasaia KE vs Derio: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 9Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Campo de fútbol Jesus Mari Zamora, Errenteria
The Footlab model makes Derio the favourite at 52%, against 26% for a draw and 21% for Pasaia KE. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Pasaia KE vs Derio?
Derio starts as the favourite with a 155-point Elo edge (1,781 vs 1,626).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pasaia KE have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Derio have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Eibar III(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 3, 2026 | Añorga(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Durango(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Aretxabaleta(home) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Zamudio(away) | 0-7 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 15, 2026 | Athletic Club(home) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Leioa(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 31, 2026 | Leioa(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 24, 2026 | Lagun Onak(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 17, 2026 | Lagun Onak(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Pasaia KE win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Derio win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2026 | Pasaia KE 0-4 Derio | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Derio 0-1 Pasaia KE | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Derio 3-1 Pasaia KE | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Nov 30, 2024 | Pasaia KE 2-2 Derio | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Mar 27, 2024 | Derio 1-0 Pasaia KE | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Nov 11, 2023 | Pasaia KE 0-3 Derio | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
How many goals should we expect?
Pasaia KE score 0.8 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Derio score 1.3 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pasaia KE | 0.8 | 1.7 | 5 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Derio | 1.3 | 1.2 | 4 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Pasaia KE sit 14th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (36 points from 34 matches) and Derio sit 3rd (58 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Derio | 34 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 54 | 40 | 58 |
| 14 | Pasaia KE | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 26 | 46 | 36 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Pasaia KE vs Derio?
- The Footlab model makes Derio the favourite at 52%, against 26% for a draw and 21% for Pasaia KE.
- Where and when is Pasaia KE vs Derio played?
- Pasaia KE vs Derio is played on November 1, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Campo de fútbol Jesus Mari Zamora, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.