Penya Encarnada vs Sporting Escaldes: prediction and stats
1a DivisióRegular Season - 4Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Centre d'Entrenament de la FAF 1, Santa Coloma
The Footlab model makes Penya Encarnada the favourite at 70%, against 18% for a draw and 12% for Sporting Escaldes. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Penya Encarnada vs Sporting Escaldes?
Penya Encarnada is a heavy favourite: 1,452 Elo points against 1,044 — a 408-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Penya Encarnada have 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats; Sporting Escaldes have 1, 0 and 14.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Atlètic Club d'Escaldes(away) | 0-2 | 1a Divisió |
| May 10, 2026 | Ranger's(home) | 1-2 | 1a Divisió |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Ordino(away) | 1-0 | 1a Divisió |
| Apr 18, 2026 | UE Santa Coloma(home) | 0-2 | 1a Divisió |
| Apr 13, 2026 | Esperança d'Andorra(away) | 1-0 | 1a Divisió |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 27, 2026 | Esperança d'Andorra(away) | 0-2 | 1a Divisió |
| May 23, 2026 | Esperança d'Andorra(home) | 1-3 | 1a Divisió |
| Jan 11, 2026 | FC Santa Coloma(away) | 1-5 | Copa Constitució |
| Apr 14, 2019 | La Massana(away) | 1-6 | 2a Divisió |
| Apr 7, 2019 | Extremenya(home) | 5-3 | 2a Divisió |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Penya Encarnada win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Sporting Escaldes win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2019 | Sporting Escaldes 1-6 Penya Encarnada | 2a Divisió |
| Nov 11, 2018 | Penya Encarnada 12-0 Sporting Escaldes | 2a Divisió |
Last archived meeting: Sporting Escaldes vs Penya Encarnada on Mar 23, 2019
How many goals should we expect?
Penya Encarnada score 0.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Sporting Escaldes score 1.2 and concede 5.5. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penya Encarnada | 0.5 | 1.5 | 5 | 3/15 | 6/15 |
| Sporting Escaldes | 1.2 | 5.5 | 0 | 9/15 | 14/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Penya Encarnada | 24 | 7 | 3 | 14 | 19 | 41 | 24 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Penya Encarnada vs Sporting Escaldes?
- The Footlab model makes Penya Encarnada the favourite at 70%, against 18% for a draw and 12% for Sporting Escaldes.
- Where and when is Penya Encarnada vs Sporting Escaldes played?
- Penya Encarnada vs Sporting Escaldes is played on October 11, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Centre d'Entrenament de la FAF 1, in the 1a Divisió.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.