Pavia vs Città di Varese: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone DGroup D - 14Kick-off on November 29, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)
The Footlab AI model makes Pavia the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Città di Varese. The most likely score is 1-1. If Pavia wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 4,542 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 5, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Pavia vs Città di Varese?
A very open match: only 46 Elo points separate Pavia (1,742) and Città di Varese (1,787).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Pavia vs Città di Varese
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Pavia
Not enough data to predict the Pavia lineup.
Città di Varese
Not enough data to predict the Città di Varese lineup.
Computed on November 5, 2026 at 02:11 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pavia have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Città di Varese have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Pro Patria(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 25, 2026 | USD Casatese(home) | 3-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Pistoiese(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Varesina(home) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Sant'Angelo(home) | 1-3 | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Varesina(away) | 1-3 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Solbiatese(home) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Arconatese(away) | 5-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Oltrepò(home) | 2-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Pro Patria(home) | 2-5 | Coppa Italia Serie D |
How many goals should we expect?
Pavia score 1.0 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Città di Varese score 1.7 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pavia | 1.0 | 1.3 | 6 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Città di Varese | 1.7 | 1.7 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Pavia sit 7th in Serie D - Girone D (14 points from 10 matches) and Città di Varese sit 11th (13 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Pavia | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 7 | 14 |
| 11 | Città di Varese | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 11 | 13 |
A question about Pavia vs Città di Varese?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Pavia vs Città di Varese?
- The Footlab AI model makes Pavia the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Città di Varese.
- Where and when is Pavia vs Città di Varese played?
- Pavia vs Città di Varese is played on November 29, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC), in the Serie D - Girone D.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.