Pogradeci vs Besëlidhja Lezhë: prediction and stats
1st DivisionRegular Season - 10Kick-off on November 7, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadiumi Gjorgji Kyçyku, Pogradec
The Footlab model makes Pogradeci the favourite at 66%, against 22% for a draw and 12% for Besëlidhja Lezhë. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Pogradeci vs Besëlidhja Lezhë?
Pogradeci starts as the favourite with a 293-point Elo edge (1,734 vs 1,441).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pogradeci have 10 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats; Besëlidhja Lezhë have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Teuta Durrës(away) | 0-1 | Superliga |
| May 11, 2026 | Besa Kavajë(home) | 1-0 | Superliga |
| May 7, 2026 | Kastrioti Krujë(home) | 3-0 | Superliga |
| May 3, 2026 | Luftëtari(away) | 0-3 | 1st Division |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Skenderbeu Korce(home) | 1-1 | 1st Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Korabi Peshkopi(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Oct 15, 2025 | Apolonia Fier(away) | 0-3 | Cup |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Gramshi(home) | 2-0 | 2nd Division - Group A |
| Mar 30, 2025 | Luzi 2008(away) | 1-3 | 2nd Division - Group A |
| Mar 26, 2025 | Sopoti Librazhd(home) | 1-1 | 2nd Division - Group A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 2 Pogradeci win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Besëlidhja Lezhë win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2022 | Pogradeci 1-0 Besëlidhja Lezhë | 1st Division |
| Sep 25, 2021 | Besëlidhja Lezhë 2-2 Pogradeci | 1st Division |
| Jul 29, 2020 | Besëlidhja Lezhë 3-2 Pogradeci | 1st Division |
| Feb 16, 2013 | Pogradeci 1-0 Besëlidhja Lezhë | 1st Division |
| Sep 8, 2012 | Besëlidhja Lezhë 3-1 Pogradeci | 1st Division |
Last archived meeting: Pogradeci vs Besëlidhja Lezhë on Feb 5, 2022
How many goals should we expect?
Pogradeci score 2.2 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Besëlidhja Lezhë score 1.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pogradeci | 2.2 | 0.9 | 5 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Besëlidhja Lezhë | 1.1 | 1.5 | 5 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Pogradeci | 33 | 20 | 8 | 5 | 63 | 31 | 68 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Pogradeci vs Besëlidhja Lezhë?
- The Footlab model makes Pogradeci the favourite at 66%, against 22% for a draw and 12% for Besëlidhja Lezhë.
- Where and when is Pogradeci vs Besëlidhja Lezhë played?
- Pogradeci vs Besëlidhja Lezhë is played on November 7, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadiumi Gjorgji Kyçyku, in the 1st Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.