Police vs Al Merreikh: prediction and stats
National Soccer LeagueMatchday 19Kick-off on February 6, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Kigali Pelé Stadium, Kigali
The Footlab AI model makes Al Merreikh the favourite at 40%, against 38% for a draw and 22% for Police. The most likely score is 0-0. If Al Merreikh wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.1% of the 5,580 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Police vs Al Merreikh?
A very open match: only 94 Elo points separate Police (1,647) and Al Merreikh (1,741).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Police vs Al Merreikh
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Police
Not enough data to predict the Police lineup.
Al Merreikh
4-3-3- 29Ramadan Agab
- 32S. Patiño
- 28A. Balouchy
- 7Mohamed Al Rashed
- 8Wagdi Awad
- 30Anas Mohamed
- 13Ahmed Yousif Tabanja
- 2Adam Babajide
- 33Dia Wah Mickaël
- 25Elsamani Saadeldin
- 16O. Ojo
Computed on November 13, 2026 at 11:22 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Police have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Al Merreikh have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 2026 | Marines(away) | 0-1 | National Soccer League |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Bugesera(home) | 1-0 | National Soccer League |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Al Merreikh(home) | 0-1 | National Soccer League |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Musanze(away) | 0-2 | National Soccer League |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Gorilla(home) | 0-0 | National Soccer League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Etoile de l'Est(home) | 3-0 | National Soccer League |
| Nov 5, 2026 | Sunrise(away) | 1-1 | National Soccer League |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Mukura(home) | 1-1 | National Soccer League |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Police(away) | 1-0 | National Soccer League |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Horoya(home) | 1-0 | CAF Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Police wins, 1 draw, 2 Al Merreikh wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2026 | Police 0-1 Al Merreikh | National Soccer League |
| Mar 9, 2026 | Police 0-1 Al Merreikh | National Soccer League |
| Jan 8, 2026 | Al Merreikh 1-1 Police | National Soccer League |
Last archived meeting: Police vs Al Merreikh on Oct 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Police score 0.5 and concede 0.6 goals per match over their last 15; Al Merreikh score 1.1 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 19% probability of over 2.5 goals and 27% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Police | 0.5 | 0.6 | 8 | 3/15 | 1/15 |
| Al Merreikh | 1.1 | 0.8 | 6 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Police sit 14th in National Soccer League (7 points from 8 matches) and Al Merreikh sit 17th (6 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Police | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 7 |
| 17 | Al Merreikh | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
A question about Police vs Al Merreikh?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Police vs Al Merreikh?
- The Footlab AI model makes Al Merreikh the favourite at 40%, against 38% for a draw and 22% for Police.
- Where and when is Police vs Al Merreikh played?
- Police vs Al Merreikh is played on February 6, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Kigali Pelé Stadium, in the National Soccer League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 19% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.1% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.