Marines vs Gicumbi: prediction and stats
National Soccer LeagueRegular Season - 19Kick-off on February 6, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stade Umuganda, Gisenyi
The Footlab model makes Marines the favourite at 55%, against 24% for a draw and 21% for Gicumbi. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Marines vs Gicumbi?
Marines starts as the favourite with a 108-point Elo edge (1,668 vs 1,560).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Marines have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Gicumbi have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 30, 2026 | Muhanga(home) | 3-2 | National Soccer League |
| May 24, 2026 | Musanze(home) | 1-1 | National Soccer League |
| May 16, 2026 | Etincelles(home) | 2-3 | National Soccer League |
| May 9, 2026 | Rayon Sports(away) | 1-2 | National Soccer League |
| May 6, 2026 | Bugesera(away) | 4-0 | National Soccer League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | APR(away) | 0-2 | National Soccer League |
| May 24, 2026 | Mukura(home) | 3-2 | National Soccer League |
| May 15, 2026 | AS Kigali(away) | 1-2 | National Soccer League |
| May 9, 2026 | Bugesera(home) | 2-1 | National Soccer League |
| May 5, 2026 | Gasogi United(away) | 1-3 | National Soccer League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Marines win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Gicumbi win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2026 | Marines 1-1 Gicumbi | National Soccer League |
| Dec 18, 2025 | Gicumbi 1-0 Marines | National Soccer League |
| Apr 16, 2022 | Marines 2-1 Gicumbi | National Soccer League |
| Dec 11, 2021 | Gicumbi 0-1 Marines | National Soccer League |
| Jan 5, 2020 | Gicumbi 1-2 Marines | National Soccer League |
| Oct 6, 2019 | Marines 2-0 Gicumbi | National Soccer League |
How many goals should we expect?
Marines score 1.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Gicumbi score 1.0 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marines | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1 | 12/15 | 9/15 |
| Gicumbi | 1.0 | 1.6 | 3 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Marines sit 8th in National Soccer League (45 points from 34 matches) and Gicumbi sit 12th (38 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Marines | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 47 | 43 | 45 |
| 12 | Gicumbi | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 38 | 54 | 38 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Marines vs Gicumbi?
- The Footlab model makes Marines the favourite at 55%, against 24% for a draw and 21% for Gicumbi.
- Where and when is Marines vs Gicumbi played?
- Marines vs Gicumbi is played on February 6, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Umuganda, in the National Soccer League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.